####018008291#### FQZA31 FAPR 021330 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 02nd OF MAY 2024 AT 13:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 022200 TO 032200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/02 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 44.1 E (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/02 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/03 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 36H: 2024/05/03 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 48H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65 60H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 0 72H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 6.1 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1.TRISTAN : N to NW 35 to 45 in places in the south-west at first, spreading to the east towards the end of the period. 2. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: S to SE 35 in the extreme north until mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1020 hPa 42s35e Low 1010 hPa 24s13e Low 988 hPa 44s12e Low 984 hPa 49s08e Low 995 hPa 09s44e 1. Cold Front: 27s02e 32s07e 37s13e 42s15e into 44s12e cont. 49s11e into 49s08e. AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 10 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south, but SW 10 to 20 in the south-east at first, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, becoming NW 10 to 20 in the south-west towards mid-period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-east, s to SW swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : NW 05 to 15 in the south-east at first, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, but SW 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in fog in the extreme north-east until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-west, S to SW swell. TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-east until mid-period, otherwise S to SW 15 to 20, but N to NW 15 to 25 in the south- west at first, reaching 35 to 45 in places. It will spread to the east towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the south at times. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in places in the south, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south-west from mid-period, W to NW swell, but SW in the south-east. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 in the south-east at first until mid-period and in the south-west by the end of the period, otherwise W to SW 10 to 20. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain, but good in the extreme north- east. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, W to NW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts at first, spreading to the east by mid-period, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the west, becoming NW 10 to 20. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east, S to SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in places in the south-east, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the extreme east. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 30 to 35 in the extreme north until mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, in the extreme north, E to SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST: WIND : Variable 05 to 15 in the south at first, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to SW 15 to 25, becoming N to NW 10 to 20 in the west towards mid-period. VIS : Good, becoming moderate to in showers and rain in the south- west by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, except in the north-west, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south-east, until mid-period, SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 24/05/02 at 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.). PART 1: WARNING : - Gale force 8 expected over CRO and KER PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/02 at 0000 UTC : - High 1025 hPa near 34S/43E moving slowly eastward. - Low 948 hPa near 56S/84E associated with a cold front (CF) axis 56S/84E, 52S/93E, 43S/69E, 31S/46E moving east-south-eastward 25/30 kt. - High 1024 hPa near 43S/30E moving eastward 10/15 kt. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS from 02/05/24 at 0600 UTC to 03/05/24 at 0600UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) : Rain and frontal showers with CF. WIND: NW 5 to 6 locally 7 ahead of CF backing southerly 4 to 6 behind CF. SEA : rough to very rough. Long SW swell of 3 to 4 m. VIS : very poor in precipitations. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) : Rain and frontal showers with CF. WIND: NW 5 to 7 ahead of CF backing southerly 4 to 5 behind CF and setting up W 5/6 over south-western area at the end. SEA : rough to very rough. Long SW swell of 3 to 4 m. VIS : very poor in precipitations. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) : Scattered showers and snow showers over southern area. WIND: W to SW 6 to 8. SEA : very rough becoming high. Long southerly swell 3 to 5 m. VIS : poor to very poor in precipitations. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) : Showers, rain and frontal squalls with CF. Snow showers over southern area. WIND: NW 7 to 8 ahead of CF front with gusts near front, then temporarily backing southerly 4/5, then increasing W to NW 6 to 7, locally 8. SEA : very rough to high. Long SW swell 2 to 5 m abating. VIS : poor to very poor in precipitations.