####018008120#### FQZA31 FAPR 021730 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 02nd OF MAY 2024 AT 17:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 022200 TO 032200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/02 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 23 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 44.1 E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/03 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/03 12 UTC: 8.7 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 8.3 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 75 48H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.4 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 0 60H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1.TRISTAN : N to NW 35 to 45 in places in the south-west at first, spreading to the east towards the end of the period. 2. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: S to SE 35 in the extreme north until mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1020 hPa 42s35e Low 1010 hPa 24s13e Low 988 hPa 44s12e Low 984 hPa 49s08e Low 995 hPa 09s44e 1. Cold Front: 27s02e 32s07e 37s13e 42s15e into 44s12e cont. 49s11e into 49s08e. AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 10 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south, but SW 10 to 20 in the south-east at first, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, becoming NW 10 to 20 in the south-west towards mid-period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-east, s to SW swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : NW 05 to 15 in the south-east at first, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, but SW 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but poor to very poor in fog in the extreme north-east until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-west, S to SW swell. TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-east until mid-period, otherwise S to SW 15 to 20, but N to NW 15 to 25 in the south- west at first, reaching 35 to 45 in places. It will spread to the east towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the south at times. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in places in the south, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south-west from mid-period, W to NW swell, but SW in the south-east. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 in the south-east at first until mid-period and in the south-west by the end of the period, otherwise W to SW 10 to 20. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain, but good in the extreme north- east. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, W to NW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts at first, spreading to the east by mid-period, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the west, becoming NW 10 to 20. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east, S to SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in places in the south-east, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the extreme east. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 30 to 35 in the extreme north until mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, in the extreme north, E to SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST: WIND : Variable 05 to 15 in the south at first, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to SW 15 to 25, becoming N to NW 10 to 20 in the west towards mid-period. VIS : Good, becoming moderate to in showers and rain in the south- west by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, except in the north-west, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south-east, until mid-period, SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 24/05/02 at 1700 utc AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be stronger than averages given here). PART 1: WARNING :Gale running over CRO and KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/02 at 1200 UTC : - Low 958 near 60S/95E, moving rather quickly south-eastward. Cold Front CF 29S/44E, 30S/50E, 32S/60E, 35S/65E, 40S/70E, 46S/80E, 49S/90E. - Low 967 near 56S/64E, moving south-eastward. Cold Front CG 40S/54E, 43S/60E, 46S/65E, 50S/67E, 55S/64E. - High 1034 near 40S/36E with a ridge toward WAM. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS from 02/05/24 at 1800 UTC to 03/05/24 at 1800 UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) :Rain, showers and squalls (CF) over far north- eastern at first. Scattered showers elsewhere. WIND: Southerly 4/6, locally 7 in far south. SEA: rough, becoming very rough from south. Long SW swell 2 to 4 m. VIS: poor to very poor in precipitations. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) :Rain, showers and squalls (CF). WIND: NW 5/7 ahead CF backing South-Westerly 4/6 behind. SEA: rough to very rough. Long SW swell 2 to 4 m, locally 4 to 5 m in south. VIS: very poor in precipitations. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) :Showers and squalls (CG). WIND: SW 7/8 decreasing 5/7 at end. Severe gusts. SEA: very rough to high. Long SSW swell 3 to 5 m. VIS: poor to very poor in precipitations. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) :Showers, rain and squalls (CF) over far north-eastern. Showers and squalls (CG) over western at first. WIND: NW 7/8 in far north-east at first, Westerly 6/7 elsewhere. Severe gusts near front. SEA: very rough to high. Long WSW swell 3 to 5 m. VIS: poor to very poor in precipitations.