####018009240#### FQZA31 FAPR 030830 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 03rd OF MAY 2024 AT 08:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 031000 TO 041000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 42.7 E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/03 18 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 36H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 6.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 45 48H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1.TRISTAN : NW 35 to 45 in the south-west during the first half of the period, spreading to the south-east by mid-period. 2.CAPE WEST: N to NW 35 to 40 in the south-west from towards mid-period. 3.CAPE EAST: N to NW 35 in places in the central parts. 4.MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: S to SE 35 in the extreme north-west until mid- period. 5. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 in the central parts from towards mid- period, spreading to the east central towards the end of the period. SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z ===================== High 1021 hPa 28s09w High 1028 hPa 36s41e Low 1012 hPa 34s08e Low 1007 hPa 07s43e Low 978 hPa 55s15e 1. Cold Front: 33s08e 38s12e 43s16e 48s19e into 55s15e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but poor in rain and showers in the extreme south-west. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south, reaching 20 to 25 in the extreme south-west, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20 VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : SW 10 to 20 in the south-west, becoming anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 by mid-period, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-west at first, S to SW swell. TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclone 05 to 15 in the north-east at first, otherwise NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 45 in the south-west during the first half of the period, spreading to the south-east mid-period, but W to SW 15 to 25 in the south-west during the second half of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south-west but 6.5 to 7.0m in the central south towards mid-period, spreading to the east towards the end of the period, W to NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 in the east and in the south-west from towards mid-period, where it will reach 30 to 40 otherwise W to SW 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0m to 6.0m in the extreme south-west from mid-period, W to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the east, reaching 20 in the extreme south-east at first, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 in places in the central parts but cyclonic 05 to 15 in the extreme west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the extreme south- west towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, S to SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in places in the north-east, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the south-west, reaching 25 to 30 in the extreme south-west from mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the north-east during the first half of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east, SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the extreme north-west until mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, in the extreme north-west, and in the south-east during the second half of the period S to SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST: WIND : S to SE 15 to 25. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south during the second half of the period, S to SW swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : SW 15 to 25 in the east until mid-period, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the central parts from towards mid-period, spreading to the east central towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south- west, spreading to the south-east mid-period, and north-west by the end of the period SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the east at first, SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 24/05/03 at 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here). PART 1: WARNING : Gale force 8 running over CRO and KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/03 at 0000 UTC : - Cold front (CF) axis 26S/51E, 33S/64E, 40S/75E,45S/82E, moving rather quickly south-eastward. - Low 970 near 58S/66E, moving eastward. Associated cold front (CG) axis 43S/55E, 45S/66E, 50S/71E. - High 1028 near 37S/40E very slowly moving, extending in a ridge over WAM. - Warm front (WH) over far western CRO at end. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS from 03/05/24 at 0600 UTC to 04/05/24 at 0600UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) : Rain, showers and squalls locally thundery (CF) over far north-eastern til later. Scattered showers elsewhere. WIND: S or SW 5/6, locally 7 with gusts over far southern, becoming anticlockwise 3/4 in west later. SEA: rough to very rough. SW swell 2 to 4 m increasing gradually 3 to 5 m. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) : Rain, showers and squalls locally thundery (CF). Scattered showers elsewhere but more frequents in far south. WIND: NW 5/7 ahead of CF with gusts, backing SW 4/6 behind. SEA: rough to very rough. SW swell 2 to 4 m, increasing 3 to 5 m from south-western area. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) : Showers and squalls (CG). Showers elsewhere, locally snowy in south. Rain and showers at end over far eastern (WH) WIND: SW 6/8 decreasing 5/7 later. Severe gusts. Backing NW 5/7 in west at end. SEA: very rough to high by SW swell 4 to 6m. Becoming rough and crossed in west at end, with SW swell 3 to 4 m. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) : Showers, rain and squalls locally thundery (CF) over far north-eastern. Showers and squalls (CG) but showers locally snowy behind. WIND: NW 5/7 backing 6/8 from north to south behind CG, decreasing 5/7. Gusts. SEA: very rough to high. SW swell 3 to 4 m, becoming soon W and increasing 4 to 6 m from west. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations.