####018001169#### FQAU20 AMMC 030900 IDY10230 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for North Eastern METAREA 10 NORTHEASTERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 25S, 142E TO 170E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 3 May 2024 Part 1 Warnings Nil. Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC East to southeasterly trade wind flow. Part 3 Forecast South of line 14S170E 08S142E: Southeasterly quarter winds 15/25 knots increasing to 25/30 knots west of line 11S148E 15S148E, and east of line 16S169E 19S169E. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low swell increasing to low to moderate swell south of line 08S144E 09S163E 12S170E. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of line 12S142E 14S161E 17S170E, and south of line 20S149E 23S157E. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 21:00 UTC Friday. ####018001147#### FQAU22 AMMC 030900 IDY10210 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for South Eastern METAREA 10 SOUTH EASTERN AREA: COAST AT 25S TO 25S170E TO 29S170E TO 45S160E TO 50S160E TO 50S129E TO COAST AT 129E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 3 May 2024 Part 1 Warnings Nil. Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC High 1033hPa near 46S140E, forecast high 1028hPa near 44S151E at 041200UTC. Part 3 Forecast Refer to latest warnings. South of line 49S: Westerly quarter winds 20/30 knots. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell increasing to moderate to heavy east of line 50S157E 40S156E 34S165E. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of line 36S155E 30S154E Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 21:00 UTC Friday. ####018001508#### FQAU24 AMMC 030900 IDY10250 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for Southern METAREA 10 SOUTHERN AREA: 50S80E TO 50S160E TO ICE EDGE Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 3 May 2024 Part 1 Warnings Melbourne Gale Warning 10. Melbourne Gale Warning 11. Melbourne Gale Warning 12. Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC Cold front [1] 50S092E 58S120E 62S124E 64S120E to low [1] 969hPa near 63S110E, forecast 52S126E 60S159E 62S161E to low [1] 969hPa near 64S159E at 041200UTC. Cold front [2] west of the area near 44S070E 47S075E 50S077E 55S074E, forecast 50S093E 59S096E 62S096E 63S088E to low [2] 969hPa near 60S083E at 041200UTC. Part 3 Forecast Refer to latest warnings. Whole area, outside warning areas: Westerly quarter winds, shifting northwesterly quarter east of fronts, becoming southwesterly quarter west of fronts, and turning clockwise within 300nm of lows. Wind speeds 25/33 knots. Rough to very rough. Moderate to heavy swell. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 300nm of fronts, and within 360nm of lows. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Part 4 Ice edge Approximately 63S080E 63S120E 64S130E 64S140E 63S160E. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 21:00 UTC Friday. ####018001637#### FQAU23 AMMC 030900 IDY10220 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for Western METAREA 10 12S TO 30S BETWEEN 90E AND 125E, AND 30S TO 50S BETWEEN 80E AND 129E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 3 May 2024 Part 1 Warnings Nil. Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC Low 1005hPa near 41S118E, forecast low 1012hPa near 37S123E at 041200UTC. Trough near 45S116E 50S119E, forecast near 43S124E 50S130E at 041200UTC. Cold front [1] near 40S080E 50S092E, forecast near 37S080E 50S096E at 040000UTC, then weakening. Cold front [2] west of the area near 44S070E 47S075E 50S077E 55S074E, forecast near 32S080E 40S087E 50S093E at 041200UTC. Part 3 Forecast Refer to latest warnings. South of line 31S080E 34S090E 50S109E: Northwesterly quarter winds 20/30 knots, within 600nm east of fronts. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. East of line 44S114E 40S112E 35S116E: Clockwise winds 20/30 knots within 420nm of low. Rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low to moderate swell, increasing to moderate to heavy swell east of line 31S104E 38S108E. Rain areas, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 240nm of fronts, and within 300nm of low, and also, north of line 14S093E 14S097E. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 21:00 UTC Friday. ####018006882#### FQZA83 FAPR 030830 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. WEST OF 20E. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 03rd OF MAY 2024 AT 08:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 031000 TO 041000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 42.7 E (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/03 18 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55 36H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 6.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 45 48H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1.TRISTAN : NW 35 to 45 in the south-west during the first half of the period, spreading to the south-east by mid-period. 2.CAPE WEST: N to NW 35 to 40 in the south-west from towards mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z ===================== High 1021 hPa 28s09w High 1028 hPa 36s41e Low 1012 hPa 34s08e Low 1007 hPa 07s43e Low 978 hPa 55s15e 1. Cold Front: 33s08e 38s12e 43s16e 48s19e into 55s15e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but poor in rain and showers in the extreme south-west. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south, reaching 20 to 25 in the extreme south-west, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20 VIS : Good. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : SW 10 to 20 in the south-west, becoming anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 by mid-period, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the extreme south-west at first, S to SW swell. TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclone 05 to 15 in the north-east at first, otherwise NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 45 in the south-west during the first half of the period, spreading to the south-east mid-period, but W to SW 15 to 25 in the south-west during the second half of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south-west but 6.5 to 7.0m in the central south towards mid-period, spreading to the east towards the end of the period, W to NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 in the east and in the south-west from towards mid-period, where it will reach 30 to 40 otherwise W to SW 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0m to 6.0m in the extreme south-west from mid-period, W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 24/05/03 at 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here). PART 1: WARNING : Gale force 8 running over CRO and KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/03 at 0000 UTC : - Cold front (CF) axis 26S/51E, 33S/64E, 40S/75E,45S/82E, moving rather quickly south-eastward. - Low 970 near 58S/66E, moving eastward. Associated cold front (CG) axis 43S/55E, 45S/66E, 50S/71E. - High 1028 near 37S/40E very slowly moving, extending in a ridge over WAM. - Warm front (WH) over far western CRO at end. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS from 03/05/24 at 0600 UTC to 04/05/24 at 0600UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) : Rain, showers and squalls locally thundery (CF) over far north-eastern til later. Scattered showers elsewhere. WIND: S or SW 5/6, locally 7 with gusts over far southern, becoming anticlockwise 3/4 in west later. SEA: rough to very rough. SW swell 2 to 4 m increasing gradually 3 to 5 m. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) : Rain, showers and squalls locally thundery (CF). Scattered showers elsewhere but more frequents in far south. WIND: NW 5/7 ahead of CF with gusts, backing SW 4/6 behind. SEA: rough to very rough. SW swell 2 to 4 m, increasing 3 to 5 m from south-western area. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) : Showers and squalls (CG). Showers elsewhere, locally snowy in south. Rain and showers at end over far eastern (WH) WIND: SW 6/8 decreasing 5/7 later. Severe gusts. Backing NW 5/7 in west at end. SEA: very rough to high by SW swell 4 to 6m. Becoming rough and crossed in west at end, with SW swell 3 to 4 m. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) : Showers, rain and squalls locally thundery (CF) over far north-eastern. Showers and squalls (CG) but showers locally snowy behind. WIND: NW 5/7 backing 6/8 from north to south behind CG, decreasing 5/7. Gusts. SEA: very rough to high. SW swell 3 to 4 m, becoming soon W and increasing 4 to 6 m from west. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations.