####018008553#### FQZA31 FAPR 031530 CCA WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 03rd OF MAY 2024 AT 15:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 032200 TO 042200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E (EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35 36H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1.TRISTAN : N to NW 35 to 45 in the central parts, spreading to the south-east towards mid-period. 2.CAPE WEST: W to NW 35 to 40 in the south-west. 3.MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: S to SE 35 in the extreme north-west at first. 5.MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 in the central parts, spreading to the north-east from towards mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1022 hPa 27s08w High 1028 hPa 35s42e Low 1010 hPa 37s11e Low 976 hPa 07s42e Low 978 hPa 56s17e 1. Cold Front: 44s32e 49s32e 54s29e into 57s17e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-east at first, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20 but N to NW 10 to 20 in the south, reaching 25 in the extreme south VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the extreme south- west by the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south towards the end of the period, SW swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-east, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W): WIND : W to SW 15 to 25 in the south-west, where it will reach 30 in places towards the end of the period, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 45 in the central parts, spreading to the south-east towards mid-period. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in places. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 6.0 to 7.0m in the central south, spreading to the south-east towards the end of the period, W to NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the central parts at first, spreading to the east towards mid-period, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 40 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the south. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0m to 6.0m in the south-west, W to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the east during the first half of the period, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30 but W to SW 10 to 20 in the west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west from mid- period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, N to NW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : N to NE 15 to 25 in the south-west, otherwise E to SE 15 to 25 but anti-cyclonic 05 to 10 in the south-east towards mid- period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east, SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the extreme north-west at first, becoming SW 10 to 20 in the central parts towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-east and in the extreme north-west at first. MADAGASCAR EAST: WIND : S to SE 15 to 25. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south, S to SW swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the central parts, spreading to the north-east from towards mid-period becoming anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the north-west by the end of the period. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain, clearing in the south from mid- period, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, SW swell but W to NW in the north-east. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 24/05/03 at 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here). PART 1: WARNING : Gale force 8 running over CRO and KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/03 at 0000 UTC : - Cold front (CF) axis 26S/51E, 33S/64E, 40S/75E,45S/82E, moving rather quickly south-eastward. - Low 970 near 58S/66E, moving eastward. Associated cold front (CG) axis 43S/55E, 45S/66E, 50S/71E. - High 1028 near 37S/40E very slowly moving, extending in a ridge over WAM. - Warm front (WH) over far western CRO at end. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS from 03/05/24 at 0600 UTC to 04/05/24 at 0600UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) : Rain, showers and squalls locally thundery (CF) over far north-eastern til later. Scattered showers elsewhere. WIND: S or SW 5/6, locally 7 with gusts over far southern, becoming anticlockwise 3/4 in west later. SEA: rough to very rough. SW swell 2 to 4 m increasing gradually 3 to 5 m. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) : Rain, showers and squalls locally thundery (CF). Scattered showers elsewhere but more frequents in far south. WIND: NW 5/7 ahead of CF with gusts, backing SW 4/6 behind. SEA: rough to very rough. SW swell 2 to 4 m, increasing 3 to 5 m from south-western area. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) : Showers and squalls (CG). Showers elsewhere, locally snowy in south. Rain and showers at end over far eastern (WH) WIND: SW 6/8 decreasing 5/7 later. Severe gusts. Backing NW 5/7 in west at end. SEA: very rough to high by SW swell 4 to 6m. Becoming rough and crossed in west at end, with SW swell 3 to 4 m. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) : Showers, rain and squalls locally thundery (CF) over far north-eastern. Showers and squalls (CG) but showers locally snowy behind. WIND: NW 5/7 backing 6/8 from north to south behind CG, decreasing 5/7. Gusts. SEA: very rough to high. SW swell 3 to 4 m, becoming soon W and increasing 4 to 6 m from west. VISI: poor or very poor in precipitations.