####018008633#### FQZA31 FAPR 031815 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 03rd OF MAY 2024 AT 18:15 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 032200 TO 042200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E (EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35 36H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1.TRISTAN : N to NW 35 to 45 in the central parts, spreading to the south-east towards mid-period. 2.CAPE WEST: W to NW 35 to 40 in the south-west. 3.MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: S to SE 35 in the extreme north-west at first. 5.MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 in the central parts, spreading to the north-east from towards mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1022 hPa 27s08w High 1028 hPa 35s42e Low 1010 hPa 37s11e Low 976 hPa 07s42e Low 978 hPa 56s17e 1. Cold Front: 44s32e 49s32e 54s29e into 57s17e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-east at first, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20 but N to NW 10 to 20 in the south, reaching 25 in the extreme south VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the extreme south- west by the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south towards the end of the period, SW swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-east, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W): WIND : W to SW 15 to 25 in the south-west, where it will reach 30 in places towards the end of the period, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 45 in the central parts, spreading to the south-east towards mid-period. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in places. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 6.0 to 7.0m in the central south, spreading to the south-east towards the end of the period, W to NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the central parts at first, spreading to the east towards mid-period, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 40 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the south. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0m to 6.0m in the south-west, W to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the east during the first half of the period, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30 but W to SW 10 to 20 in the west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west from mid- period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, N to NW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : N to NE 15 to 25 in the south-west, otherwise E to SE 15 to 25 but anti-cyclonic 05 to 10 in the south-east towards mid- period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east, SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the extreme north-west at first, becoming SW 10 to 20 in the central parts towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-east and in the extreme north-west at first. MADAGASCAR EAST: WIND : S to SE 15 to 25. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south, S to SW swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the central parts, spreading to the north-east from towards mid-period becoming anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the north-west by the end of the period. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain, clearing in the south from mid- period, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, SW swell but W to NW in the north-east. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 24/05/03 at 1700 utc AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be stronger than averages given here). PART 1: WARNING : Gale force 8 over CRO. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/03 at 1200 UTC : - Cold front (CF) axis 30S/65EE, 40S/78E leaving northeast AMS at end. -Cold front (CG) axis 41S/65E, 45S/36E, 49S/79E moving eastward. -Cold front (CH) arriving over western CRO at end with expected low 991hPa near 48S/53E at end. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS from 03/05/24 at 1800 UTC to 04/05/24 at 1800 UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E): Showers more frequent in the south. WIND: North half; Southerly 4/5, becoming anticlockwise 2/4 by the west. South half; south-westerly 5/6, decreasing 4/5 soon by the west, then increasing westerly 4 to 7 from north to south at the end. SEA : rough to very rough. Southwesterly swell 3 to 5 from north to south. VISI: poor to very poor under precipitation. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E): Rain, showers and locally thundery squalls (CF). WIND: South to Southwest 5/6, locally 4, but North to Northwest 5/6 locally 7 with gusts over northeast zone ahead of CF front. SEA : rough to very rough. SW swell 3/5m behind the front. VISI: poor to very poor under precipitation. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E): Showers then rain and frontal showers (CH) loc snow in the south. WIND: Southwest 6/7, soon decreasing 5/6 by west, later increasing with CG, North then West 6/7 locally 8 with gusts over north zone and becoming clocwize 4/6 over southwest zone. SEA : very rough to high, becoming rough to very rough at the end. SW swell 4/6m damping 2/3m on west later and arrival of a W swell 2/3m on NW at the end with CH. VISI: poor to very poor under precipitation. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E): Showers, rain and locally thundery squalls (CF, CG) loc snow to the south. WIND: Westerly 5/6 in the north and 6/7 in the south, setting-up South- westerly 5/6, locally 7 by the west, but North-westerly 5/6 over north-east zone at the firts with CG and CF. SEA : very rough but high in SW. Westerly swell 4/6m. VISI: poor to very poor under precipitation.####018006749#### FQZA81 FAPR 031815 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII EAST OF 20 EAST. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 03rd OF MAY 2024 AT 18:15 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 032200 TO 042200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E (EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35 36H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1.MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: S to SE 35 in the extreme north-west at first. 2.MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 in the central parts, spreading to the north-east from towards mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1022 hPa 27s08w High 1028 hPa 35s42e Low 1010 hPa 37s11e Low 976 hPa 07s42e Low 978 hPa 56s17e 1. Cold Front: 44s32e 49s32e 54s29e into 57s17e AREA FORECAST: ============== CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the east during the first half of the period, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30 but W to SW 10 to 20 in the west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west from mid- period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, N to NW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : N to NE 15 to 25 in the south-west, otherwise E to SE 15 to 25 but anti-cyclonic 05 to 10 in the south-east towards mid- period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the east, SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the extreme north-west at first, becoming SW 10 to 20 in the central parts towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-east and in the extreme north-west at first. MADAGASCAR EAST: WIND : S to SE 15 to 25. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south, S to SW swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 35 in the central parts, spreading to the north-east from towards mid-period becoming anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the north-west by the end of the period. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain, clearing in the south from mid- period, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, SW swell but W to NW in the north-east. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 24/05/03 at 1700 utc AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be stronger than averages given here). PART 1: WARNING : Gale force 8 over CRO. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/03 at 1200 UTC : - Cold front (CF) axis 30S/65EE, 40S/78E leaving northeast AMS at end. -Cold front (CG) axis 41S/65E, 45S/36E, 49S/79E moving eastward. -Cold front (CH) arriving over western CRO at end with expected low 991hPa near 48S/53E at end. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS from 03/05/24 at 1800 UTC to 04/05/24 at 1800 UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E): Showers more frequent in the south. WIND: North half; Southerly 4/5, becoming anticlockwise 2/4 by the west. South half; south-westerly 5/6, decreasing 4/5 soon by the west, then increasing westerly 4 to 7 from north to south at the end. SEA : rough to very rough. Southwesterly swell 3 to 5 from north to south. VISI: poor to very poor under precipitation. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E): Rain, showers and locally thundery squalls (CF). WIND: South to Southwest 5/6, locally 4, but North to Northwest 5/6 locally 7 with gusts over northeast zone ahead of CF front. SEA : rough to very rough. SW swell 3/5m behind the front. VISI: poor to very poor under precipitation. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E): Showers then rain and frontal showers (CH) loc snow in the south. WIND: Southwest 6/7, soon decreasing 5/6 by west, later increasing with CG, North then West 6/7 locally 8 with gusts over north zone and becoming clocwize 4/6 over southwest zone. SEA : very rough to high, becoming rough to very rough at the end. SW swell 4/6m damping 2/3m on west later and arrival of a W swell 2/3m on NW at the end with CH. VISI: poor to very poor under precipitation. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E): Showers, rain and locally thundery squalls (CF, CG) loc snow to the south. WIND: Westerly 5/6 in the north and 6/7 in the south, setting-up South- westerly 5/6, locally 7 by the west, but North-westerly 5/6 over north-east zone at the firts with CG and CF. SEA : very rough but high in SW. Westerly swell 4/6m. VISI: poor to very poor under precipitation.####018004416#### FQZA83 FAPR 031815 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII WEST OF 20 EAST. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 03rd OF MAY 2024 AT 18:15 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 032200 TO 042200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20232024 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/03 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 41.9 E (EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/04 00 UTC: 7.6 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/04 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35 36H: 2024/05/05 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1.TRISTAN : N to NW 35 to 45 in the central parts, spreading to the south-east towards mid-period. 2.CAPE WEST: W to NW 35 to 40 in the south-west. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1022 hPa 27s08w High 1028 hPa 35s42e Low 1010 hPa 37s11e Low 976 hPa 07s42e Low 978 hPa 56s17e 1. Cold Front: 44s32e 49s32e 54s29e into 57s17e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : E to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-east at first, otherwise E to SE 10 to 20 but N to NW 10 to 20 in the south, reaching 25 in the extreme south VIS : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the extreme south- west by the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south towards the end of the period, SW swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the south-east, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W): WIND : W to SW 15 to 25 in the south-west, where it will reach 30 in places towards the end of the period, otherwise N to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 45 in the central parts, spreading to the south-east towards mid-period. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in places. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 6.0 to 7.0m in the central south, spreading to the south-east towards the end of the period, W to NW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the central parts at first, spreading to the east towards mid-period, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 40 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in places in the south. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0m to 6.0m in the south-west, W to SW swell.