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FQZA31 FAPR 041330



WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII.

ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE

04th OF MAY 2024 AT 13:30 UTC.



FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2

BELOW.



NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS.

======================

COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE

MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO.



AREA 1:

=======

FORECAST VALID FROM 042200 TO 052200 UTC:



WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS

THAN 3M.



NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS.

INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5.

WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY

INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER.



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20232024

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA)



2.A POSITION 2024/05/04 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 40.0 E

(SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND

FORTY    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75

48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP



1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):

12H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 6.5 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 0



24H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 5.5 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING

GALE FORCE WARNINGS:

====================

1. TRISTAN: N to NW 35 in the north-east in the first half of the

   period, otherwise W to SW 35 over the central parts spreading towards

   the south-east by mid-period.

2. CAPE WEST: W to NW 35 to 40 over the south-central parts, becoming SW

   35 in the south-west by mid-period, spreading towards the central

   parts while it moderates in the west by the end of the period.

3. CAPE EAST: N to NW 35 to 40 in the south-west.

4. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 to 40 in the south-west at the end

   of the period.





SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z

=====================

High 1022 hPa 24s08w High 1026 hPa 33s50e.

Low   994 hPa 38s08w Low   980 hPa 53s11e 960 hPa 57s02w

Low  1004 hPa 42s28e.



1. Cold Front: 29s20e 35s27e into 42s28e.

2. Cold Front: 30s20w 35s08w into 38s08w into 53s11e into 57s02w.





AREA FORECAST:

==============

ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W):

WIND     : E to SE 10 to 20.

VIS      : Good, but moderate in showers in the south.



ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N):

WIND     : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 05 to 15 in the extreme south-east.

VIS      : Good, but moderate in showers in the extreme south-west.



ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W):

WIND     : to SE 10 to 20 in the north, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25

           reaching 30 in the extreme south-east, but S to SW 10 to 20

           in the south-west spreading towards the south-east by the end

           of the period.

VIS      : Good, but moderate in rain and showers in the south.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-east, SW swell.



TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST):

WIND     : S to SE 15 to 25, but anticyclonic 05 in the south-west

           becoming N to NW 15 to 25 towards mid-period.

VIS      : Good, becoming moderate in showers in the south-west by the

           end of the period.



TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W):

WIND     : N to NW 25 to 35 in the north-east in the first half of the

           period, otherwise W to SW 15 to 25 reaching 35 over the

           central parts spreading towards the south-east by mid-period.

VIS      : Good in the north-west, otherwise moderate in showers and

           rain.

SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 6.0 to 7.0m in the east in the first

           half of the period, E to SE swell but SW swell in the north-

           west.



CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E):

WIND     : W to NW 15 to 25 reaching 35 to 40 over the south-central

           parts, becoming SW 25 to 35 in the south-west by mid-period,

           spreading towards the central parts while it moderates in the

           west by the end of the period.

VIS      : Good in the north-east, otherwise moderate in showers and

           rain.

SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 6.0m to 7.0m over the central parts

           spreading towards the south-east by the end of the period,

           W to SW swell.



CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E):

WIND     : Anti-cyclonic 05 over the central parts, otherwise N to NW 15

           to 25 reaching 35 to 40 in the south-west.

VIS      : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the west spreading

           towards the east by mid-period.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south, reaching 6.0 to 7.0m in the extreme

           south-west, W to SW swell.



DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E):

WIND     : Anti-cyclonic 05 in the south-east, otherwise E to SE 10 to

           20 but N to NE 15 to 25 in the west.

VIS      : Good, but moderate in showers in the north-east.



MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:

WIND     : S to SE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the extreme north-east and

           south-east, becoming light and variable 05 in the south

           towards the end of the period.

VIS      : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in

           the north.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-east at first, SE swell.



MADAGASCAR EAST:

WIND     : S to SE 15 to 25 reaching 30 in the extreme north-west, but

           NE N to NE 10 to 20 in the extreme south-west.

VIS      : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places.



MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E):

WIND     : W to NW 20 to 30 reaching 35 to 40 in the south-west at the

           end of the period.

VIS      : Moderate to poor in showers and rain.

SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east at first, W to NW swell.







AREA 2:

=======



MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM

METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN)



DATE: 24/05/04 AT 0500UTC



AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE.).



PART 1: WARNING:

- GALE FORCE 8 EXPECTED OVER CRO, SOUTHERN WAM AND KER.



PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/04 AT 0000 UTC:

- COLD FRONT (CF) EASTERN AMS.

- COLD FRONT (CG)  OVER WESTERN CRO AT FIRST.

- COLD FRONT (CH) LEAVING EASTERN AREA.

- HIGH 1030 HPA NEAR 33S/45E WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER WAM AND AMS.



PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 04/05/24 AT 0600 UTC TO 05/05/24 AT 0600UTC :



WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E):

SHOWERS MORE FREQUENT IN THE SOUTH LATER.

WIND : NORTH HALF:  ANTICLOCKWISE 2/4 INCREASING S 5 OVER EASTERN AT FIRST. SOUTH HALF: W 4 TO 6 INCREASING LOCALLY 7/8. GUSTS.

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. SOUTH-WESTERLY SWELL 3 TO 5 ABATING.

VISI: POOR IN PRECIPITATION.



AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E):

RAIN, SHOWERS AND LOCALLY THUNDERY SQUALLS (CF).

WIND : W OR SW 5/6, LOCALLY 7 IN SOUTH-WEST AT END, AND DECREASING ANTICLOCKWISE 3 TO 5 OVERNIGHT.

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. SW SWELL 3/5 METERS.

VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN  PRECIPITATION.



CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E):

RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS ( CG) LOCALLY SNOW IN THE SOUTH.

WIND : MAINLY  W OR NW 5/7 LOCALLY 8 AND DECREASING TEMPORARILY NE 3 TO 5 IN SOUTH-WEST OVERNIGHT. GUSTS.

SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH LOCALLY HIGH AT FIRST. SW SWELL 4 A 6 METERS ABATING.

VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.



KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E):

SHOWERS. RAIN AND FRONTAL SHOWERS AT END ( CG).

WIND : W 5/6, BECOMING CLOCKWISE 4 TO 6  LOCALLY 7/8 OVER WESTERN AT END.

SEA: OFTEN VERY ROUGH. WESTERLY SWELL 4/6M.

VISI: POOR TO VERY POOR IN PRECIPITATION.