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FZAK80 PAFC 200008

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

308 PM AKST Monday 19 February 2024





FORECAST VALID...Saturday 24 February 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...A weakening low pressure moves from the mainland into the 

Bering Strait region Monday and Tuesday along with a milder air 

mass. A much larger and stronger system enters the western Bering 

Sea on Wednesday, then weakens toward the weekend. 



The main ice edge extends from near the Nushagak Peninsula to 58 9’N 

168 26’W to 59 38’N 172W to 60 42’N 179 26’W and continues in 

Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from the 

Nushagak Peninsula to 130 nm south of Cape Mohican to 40 nm south of 

Saint Matthew Island to 280 nm southwest of Gambell.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northeast winds remain through the period. 

Expect a shear zone to form along the edge of the shorefast ice and 

general movement with the currents of Beaufort Gyre. 





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Mostly northeasterly winds will remain through 

the forecast period. Expect a polynya to form along the northwest 

coast of Alaska from Utqiagvik through Cape Lisburne. There is 

potential to see some weak southerly winds toward the Bering Strait 

and Kotzebue Sound, but shorefast ice should remain intact in these 

areas. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. A large storm entering the western Bering Sea will bring a 

period of retreat to the ice edge, 30 to 50 nm through Saturday, 

with the greatest retreat from Saint Matthew Island eastward. Given 

period of southerly winds there is low confidence of the possibility 

of ice shoves for the Kuskokwim Delta as well as the northern Norton 

Sound coastline. Once the low pressure system weakens toward the 

weekend, expect the growing and advancing regime to continue under 

northerly winds and arctic air. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from south of Tuxedni to near Kenai. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. The melting and retreating regime will continue as several low 

pressure systems bring periods of easterly and southerly winds to 

the Inlet. Expect the ice edge to retreat and the pack to thin. 

Remaining pack ice will be pushed toward the western Inlet.

 



&&



Lawson