####018005698####
FZAK80 PAFC 232330

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

230 PM AKST Friday 23 February 2024





FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 28 February 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high



SYNOPSIS...A system over the Bering Strait continues to weaken and 

fill. On late Sunday, a stronger, developing system moves into the 

Bering Sea, then strengthens as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska on 

Tuesday. 



The main ice edge extends from near the Nushagak Peninsula to 58 

26'N 165 18'W to 59 55'N 171 39'W to 59 45'N 173 29'W to 60 50'N 177 

7'W and continues west in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from the 

Nushagak Peninsula to 120 nm southeast of Cape Mohican to 125 nm 

west-southwest of Cape Mohican to 45 nm south of Saint Matthew 

Island to 230 nm southwest of Gambell.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. High pressure builds through the period with 

north to east winds. Expect a shear zone to form along the edge of 

the shorefast ice and general movement with the currents of Beaufort 

Gyre. A weak low moving into the Beaufort Sea toward the Canadian 

Archipelago will reverse the winds and slow the west to east ice 

movement. 





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Easterly winds will remain through Sunday, 

keeping polynyas open along the northwest coast of Alaska from 

Utqiagvik through Wales.  Northwesterly winds will pick up early 

next week which will close polynyas along the coast. 





-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. South to westerly winds will continue along the ice 

edge through Saturday from Saint Matthew Island eastward. The ice 

edge will continue retreat 10 to 20 nm. 



Another system moves into the central Bering Sea Sunday and Monday, 

which will both retreat the ice edge and compact pack ice against 

the coast from the Kuskokwim Delta eastward. Monday afternoon, 

behind that system through Wednesday, there will be a period of 

advance and growth, 20 to 35 nm to the south. 



Expect polynyas to form along south facing coastlines Monday through 

Wednesday. 







-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Kenai. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. A meteorological pattern change is underway as colder air 

will filter back into the Cook Inlet region over the weekend. Light 

northerly winds and the cold air mass will lead to recovery of the 

ice pack in upper Cook Inlet. 



A stronger storm system moves into the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday 

will moderate the air mass slightly with increased cloud cover, but 

keep the arctic air from the north in place. Expect much of the 

upper Inlet to freeze with grease ice in addition to the existing 

young and first year thin ice. 



&&



Schreck/Lawson