####018005655####
FZAK80 PAFC 282337

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

237 PM AKST Wednesday 28 February 2024



FORECAST VALID...Monday 4 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...High pressure currently sits over the southern Bering 

Strait and much of the ice edge. Two strong storm systems sit in the 

Gulf of Alaska, and northwest Pacific, the latter sending a front 

into the Bering Sea.  That front will stall out over the ice edge 

through the weekend. 



The main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 57 44’N 164 29’W to 58 

15’N 168 28’W to 59 42’N 171 59’W to 59 42’N 174 3’W to 60 25’N 174 

46’W to 60 31’N 178 31’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice 

edge is open water.  



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Egegik to 95 nm southwest of Cape Newenham to 120 nm south of 

Cape Mohican to 55 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 270 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Westerly to southwesterly winds will persist 

into Saturday. Light northeasterly winds return on Sunday. Expect 

the ice pack to move with these wind directions overall. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Southwest winds will become light and variable 

Thursday into Friday then southeasterly over the weekend. Polynyas 

are expected to form off north-facing coastlines Saturday through 

Monday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



East of Saint Matthew Island , the ice edge will continue to advance 

through Friday afternoon, around 15 to 25 nm southward. Friday 

through Monday, several systems with on-ice wind will retreat the 

ice edge back to the north, 20 to 30 nm and compact ice against the 

coastline from Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta. 



From Saint Matthew Island westward, the ice edge will retreat 

through the period, though winds parallel to the edge will make the 

retreat slower through Saturday. Overall expect retreat of 15 to 25 

nm through Monday. 



Otherwise expect polynyas to form along west facing coastlines, 

especially from the Yukon Delta through Norton Bay. Shorefast ice in 

these area will be vulnerable to break-off. 





-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Kenai. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly through Monday. With air temperatures 

ranging from the single digits below zero to the teens above zero, 

sea ice will grow especially throughout upper Cook Inlet through the 

period. Expect the ice edge to fill back toward the south in lower 

Cook Inlet 20 to 30 nm. Ice within protected areas of Kachemak Bay 

is also likely under this air mass. 



&&



Lawson