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FZAK80 PAFC 050006

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

305 PM AKST Monday 4 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 9 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...While broad high pressure builds over the Chukchi and 

Beaufort Seas a series of lows will track across the Bering Sea 

through Saturday.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 14’N 159 27’W 

to 57 41’N 160 32’W to 58 9’N 166 31’W to 61 15’N 177 46’W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 35 nm northwest of Port Heiden to 60 nm 

northwest of Port Heiden to 105 nm south of Cape Mendenhall to 210 

nm southwest of Gambell.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high.  South of 72N, winds will be easterly to 

northeasterly through Tuesday, then light and variable through 

Thursday, then westerly to northerly Friday and Saturday. North of 

72N, westerly to northwesterly winds will persist through Friday, 

then winds will shift as a low moves south over the region. Expect 

the ice pack to move with these wind directions overall.  



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally north winds will continue through 

Saturday. Polynyas are expected to form off south-facing coastlines. 

Otherwise the ice pack will gradually move south.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Through Tuesday, winds will be southerly to westerly 

overall south of St. Matthew Island and northerly to easterly north 

of St. Matthew Island. Winds will then be northerly Wednesday and 

early Thursday before the next low moves in from the southwest and 

brings southerly winds to the western Bering Sea late Thursday. 

Winds will then become easterly Friday before returning to northerly 

Saturday. The ice edge is expected to advance south 20 to 30 nm from 

St. Matthew Island west and retreat 30 to 40 nm east of St. Matthew 

Island through Saturday.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly overall through Saturday. Air 

temperatures will moderate to the 20s and low 30s over the region 

through the forecast period, which will slow down ice growth and 

even allow for some melting especially if there is sunshine. The ice 

edge may advance up to 10 nm south by Saturday, but overall we 

expect the existing sea ice to move with the tides and currents. 





&&



Schreck