####018005410####
FZAK80 PAFC 062356

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

256 PM AKST Wednesday 6 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 11 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...While a low over the Beaufort Sea moves east and broad 

high pressure builds over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, a series of 

lows will track across the southern Bering Sea through Monday.



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 10’N 158 49’W 

to 57 51’N 159 52’W to 58 44’N 168 11’W to 61 12’N 176 25’W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 15 nm north of Port Heiden to 70 nm north-

northwest of Port Heiden to 90 nm south of Cape Mohican to 200 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. South of 72N, winds will be westerly to 

northwesterly through Sunday, then possibly becoming southwest on 

Monday. Near the Alaska coastline, light northeast winds will 

develop late Sunday into Monday. Expect the ice pack to move with 

these wind directions overall, and with local tides and currents 

during periods of light winds.  



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally north winds will continue over the 

Chukchi Sea ice pack through Monday, though there will be a period 

of light winds as high pressure becomes centered over the region 

during the weekend. Polynyas are expected to form off south-facing 

coastlines. Otherwise the ice pack will gradually move south.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. Winds over the main ice pack in Alaska waters will 

generally be northerly through Monday. These winds and cold 

temperatures will allow the ice pack to quickly drift south and 

polynyas will likely form and quickly fill in with new ice off south-

facing coastlines. The ice edge is expected to advance south 50 to 

70 nm through Monday.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly overall through Monday. Air 

temperatures will continue to be in the teens to low 30s over the 

region through the forecast period, which will slow down ice growth 

and even allow for some melting especially during periods of 

sunshine. The ice edge may retreat up to 10 nm south by Monday, but 

overall we expect the existing sea ice to move with the tides and 

currents.



&&



Schreck