####018005379####
FZAK80 PAFC 112237

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

237 PM AKST Monday 11 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 16 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...High pressure sits over the southern Chukchi Sea while 

low pressure systems sit in the Gulf of Alaska and south of the 

eastern Aleutians. In general the storm track stays away from the 

Bering Sea through Saturday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Port Moller to 57 24’N 159 44’W 

to 57 3’N 161 44’W to 57 44’N 168 33’W to 60 54’N 177 16’W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is strips.





From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Moller to 40 nm northwest of Port Heiden to 95 nm south of 

Cape Newenham to 150 nm south of Cape Mohican to 260 nm southwest of 

Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is strips. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light and variable winds will continue through 

Saturday. Expect ice to generally move with the currents of the 

Beaufort gyre. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally north winds will continue over the 

Chukchi Sea ice pack through Saturday. Little movement of the ice 

pack is expected.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. Winds over the main ice pack in Alaska waters will 

generally be northerly through Saturday. These winds and cold 

temperatures will allow the ice pack to quickly drift south and 

polynyas will likely form and quickly fill in with new ice off south-

facing coastlines. Winds will strip ice off the main pack and move 

it southward 30 to 50 nm through Friday. However, it will be moving 

into warmer waters which may melt some of the newly formed ice along 

the edge.  The weather pattern looks to change over the weekend, 

possibly bringing southerly winds back to the Bering Sea, but 

uncertainty is higher than normal. Stay tuned. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly overall through Saturday. Air 

temperatures will continue to be in the teens to low 30s over the 

region through the forecast period, which will slow down ice growth 

and even allow for some melting especially during periods of 

sunshine. There may be a brief period of southerly winds late in the 

week which could retreat up to 20 nm, but overall we expect the 

existing sea ice to move with the tides and currents.



&&



Lawson