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FZAK80 PAFC 132300

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

300 PM AKST Wednesday 13 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Monday 18 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the Chukchi and eastern 

Russian while low pressure troughs continue to move through the 

western Bering and Gulf of Alaska. On Monday a low pressure system 

will move into the southern Bering.



The main ice edge extends from Nelson Lagoon to 57N 159 13'W to 57 

26'N 159 56'W to 56 43'N 164 36'W to 57 40'N 169 43'W to 59 51'N 174 

55'W to 61 23'N 177 56'W and into Russian waters. The ice edge is 

strips. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Nelson Lagoon and follows the coast until moving farther 

offshore 20 nm W of Port Heiden. The edge then moves from 80 nm W of 

Port Heiden to 120 nm S of Cape Newenham to 35 nm N of S Paul to 70 

nm S of St. Matthew to 100 nm W of St Matthew to 230 nm SW of 

Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is strips.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light and variable winds will continue through 

Monday. Expect ice to generally move with the currents of the 

Beaufort gyre. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Generally north winds will continue over the 

Chukchi Sea ice pack through Monday. Little movement of the ice pack 

is expected.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate to high. Over the past 3 days the ice edge, mostly in 

the form of strips, has advanced around 15 nm each day. The weather 

pattern will continue to allow this through Sunday. Calmer winds and 

cold air coming off the mainland will help to push the ice edge 20 

to 50 nm south and west. The ice edge is mainly strips, which may 

continue to melt as they move into warmer water. There is a 50/50 

chance of ice strips making it to St Paul over the weekend.





-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Winds will be northerly overall through Saturday. Air 

temperatures will continue to be in the teens to low 30s over the 

region through the forecast period, which will slow down ice growth 

and even allow for some melting especially during periods of 

sunshine. There may be a brief period of southerly winds late in the 

week which could retreat up to 20 nm, but overall we expect the 

existing sea ice to move with the tides and currents.



&&



Jones