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FZAK80 PAFC 182213

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

213 PM AKST Monday 18 March 2024



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 23 March 2024 



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...High pressure sits over the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. 

Several low pressure systems and fronts will move into the central 

Bering Sea through the week, extending into the western Chukchi Sea. 



The main ice edge extends from near Cold Bay to 57 4’N 159 32’W to 

57 30’N 160 54’W to 56 33’N 162 58’W to 57N 170 15W to 61 9’N 178 

54’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is strips.





From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cold Bay to 28 nm northwest of Port Heiden to 80 nm northwest 

of Port Heiden to 70 nm north of Cold Bay to Saint Paul Island to 

250 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice 

edge is strips.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will remain easterly through Tuesday 

before taking a light southerly component for the remainder of the 

week. Ice will continue to move from east to west, with some light 

movement to the north. Some vulnerable shorefast ice could break-off 

but winds do not look to be very strong at this point. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Southeasterly winds will increase on Tuesday. 

Shorefast ice along the coast will be vulnerable to break-off 

through the week. Expect polynyas to open along northwest facing 

coastlines. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate to high. Much of the Bering Sea will enter a period of 

retreat through the week. The greatest retreat will be from Saint 

Matthew Island eastward. Expect strips of ice to compact against the 

pack ice as well as retreat to the north 30 to 50 nm through 

Saturday.  



West of Saint Matthew Island, the area will be in the storm track 

giving the area alternating southerly and northerly winds. Ice will 

ebb and flow with these winds and remain generally in the same area, 

with a greater chance for advance as you near the International Date 

Line. 



For the Kuksokwim Delta and Bristol Bay areas, the longer period of 

southerly winds will increase the chances for ice shoves, but 

confidence is low.  Ice will compact and move toward the coast, 

closing up any polynyas that have formed in the recent northerly 

flow. 









-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Generally light northerly flow will persist through Saturday. 

Seasonal melt of existing ice will continue as air temperatures 

remain in the upper 20s to upper 30s through the week. A much warmer 

air mass is expected toward the late-week along with clearing sky 

which will hasten sea ice melt, especially in the lower-Inlet.



 



&&



Lawson