####018006415#### FZAK80 PAFC 202306 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 306 PM AKST Wednesday 20 March 2024 FORECAST VALID...Monday 25 March 2024 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate SYNOPSIS...A series of systems will move from the eastern Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea through Friday. A stronger storm system will move from the northern Pacific into the eastern Bering Sea over the weekend. The main ice edge extends from 55 41’N 163 5’W to 57 5’N 159 42’W to 57 8’N 161 21’W to57 27’N 162 36’W to 57 46’N 169 15’W to 61 11’N 178 54’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 30 nm Cold Bay to 30 nm west of Port Heiden to 55 nm southeast of Cape Newenham to 80 nm southwest of Cape Newenham to 40 nm north of Saint Paul Island to 250 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Winds will remain southeasterly through Friday before going southwesterly on Saturday and Sunday. Vulnerable shorefast ice will be at risk of breaking off. Winds become northwesterly on Monday along with much colder air. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Southeasterly winds will continue through Friday Shorefast ice along the coast will be vulnerable to break-off through the week. Expect polynyas to open along northwest facing coastlines. Over the weekend, northerly flow returns which will bring ice back to the coastline. -BERING SEA- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- Ice covered. PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm- PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm- PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate to high. For the eastern Bering Sea, retreat will continue through the period. Southerly winds through Friday will retreat the ice edge another 30 to 40 nm to the north. A front entering the southern Bering Sea will bring a period of easterly winds which will continue the retreat, albeit at a slower rate, but also moving the ice edge away from the Alaska Peninsula and toward the Kuskokwim Delta. West of Nunivak Island will continue to see retreat through Thursday, however the storm track shifts to the east which will stall the retreat and bring the area back into an advancing state of the ice pack. From Saint Matthew Island westward will see the greatest advance of 20 to 30 nm through Monday. Expect polynyas to continue to form from the Yukon Delta through Unalakleet with low chances for ice shoves along the northern Norton Sound coastline. For Saint Lawrence Island, polynyas will continue to form along the north side of the island with shorefast ice breaking off as well. When northerly winds return over the weekend the polynyas will close and the pack will move back against the coastline. A polynya will form along the south side of the island. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- Ice covered. PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- PKZ738-Shelikof Strait- PKZ741-Kachemak Bay- PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- The main ice edge extends from Kamishak Bay to near Anchor Point. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Generally light northerly flow will persist through Monday. Seasonal melt of existing ice will continue as air temperatures remain in the upper 20s to upper 30s through the week. Melting will continue through the late week with a much warmer air mass over the area with more sunshine. Temperatures will cool down with cloud cover over the weekend, but easterly winds through Turnagain Arm will continue melt in that area. Overall expect the ice edge to retreat 20 to 30 nm through Monday with continued areal thinning of the remaining pack ice. && Lawson