####018006010#### FZAK80 PAFC 252342 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 335 PM AKST Monday 25 March 2024 FORECAST VALID...Saturday 30 March 2024 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High SYNOPSIS...A low weakens over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay areas today. Another low will develop over the central Bering Sea on Tuesday and track north to Saint Lawrence Island where it dissipates on Thursday. A strong North Pacific low enters the Bering Sea Thursday through Saturday. Another low enters Bristol Bay on Saturday. The main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 57 51’N 159 40’W to 57 59’N 165 2’W to 57 36’N 170 12’W to 60 52’N 177 59’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Naknek to 65 nm north of Port Heiden to 210 nm northwest of Port Heiden to 25 nm north of Saint Paul Island to 265 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly winds persist through Tuesday with much colder air returning to the region. Winds shift easterly on Wednesday and then southeasterly on Thursday, with the strongest winds near the Canadian border. For Friday and Saturday, winds become light out of the north. Overall, the ice pack is expected to move west 20 to 30 nm through Saturday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly winds will shift northeasterly on Tuesday and then easterly by Wednesday. Winds will become northerly again Thursday through Saturday. Expect polynyas to open along south and west facing coastlines. -BERING SEA- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-PKZ817- North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- Ice covered. PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. For the eastern Bering Sea, northwesterly winds will gradually become southerly by Wednesday and then south-southeasterly for Thursday and Friday, which will continue the retreat the ice edge toward the Kuskokwim Delta. Expect polynyas to form along the north and west facing coastlines. Shorefast ice that is not attached to the ocean floor will be at risk of breaking off. By Saturday, winds shift westerly. Between Saint Matthew Island and Nunivak Island, southerly winds will develop Tuesday through potentially Friday. Expect the ice edge to retreat 20 to 40 nm through Saturday. West of Saint Matthew Island, winds will remain northerly through Saturday and become especially strong from Thursday through Saturday. Expect the ice edge to advance 40 to 60 nm, polynyas to form along the southern facing coastlines. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- Ice covered. PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to 60 9’N 151 58’W to near Kenai. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points, the main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to 10 nm west of Ninilchik to near Kenai. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Seasonal melt of existing ice will continue as air temperatures remain in the upper 20s to upper 30s through Saturday. Winds will remain fairly light through Saturday, so ice will generally move with tides and currents. && Schreck/Fenrich