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FZAK80 PAFC 052307

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 

307 PM AKDT Friday 5 April 2024



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 10 April 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate.



SYNOPSIS...A low will move east across the southern Bering Sea 

through Saturday, then into the Gulf of Alaska by Monday. High 

pressure will build over the Bering Sea Monday through Wednesday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 58 32’N 163 5’W to 57 

51’N 163 38’W to 58 35’N 168 37’W to 58N 170 20’W to 61 2’N 178 51’W 

and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Egegik to 30 nm west of Cape Newenham to 65 nm southwest of 

Cape Newenham to 100 nm northeast of Saint Paul Island to 55 nm 

north of St. Paul Island to 255 nm southwest of Gambell and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will become westerly to northwesterly 

Saturday, then northerly Monday through Wednesday. No significant 

changes in the ice pack are expected through the forecast period.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northwest winds will persist through Monday, 

then winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday and Wednesday. Sea 

ice will compact against north and west-facing coastlines through 

Monday. As winds shift Tuesday and Wednesday, polynyas can be 

expected off those north and west-facing coastlines.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-



Ice covered.



PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N-

PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W-

PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. As the low moves eastward, winds ahead of it will be 

easterly and winds behind the low will be northerly. On Wednesday, 

winds will become southerly again. Colder air will move south with 

the northerly winds, and the ice pack will advance southward. New 

ice formation can be expected anywhere that waters are newly open, 

especially in the Bristol Bay area. Overall, the ice pack is 

expected to advance 30 to 40 nm during the period of northerly 

winds, then retreat up to 10 nm on Wednesday. Polynyas that form 

during the southerly winds will close off as the northerly winds 

return. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ730-West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-

PKZ738-Shelikof Strait-

PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-

PKZ741-Kachemak Bay-

PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-



The main ice edge extends from near the Susitna River Delta to Point 

Possession. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Air temperatures will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s through 

Wednesday and winds will remain fairly light northerly through 

Wednesday. While most of the sea ice has melted throughout Cook 

Inlet, there may be periods especially during the overnight hours 

where new ice is able to form temporarily as water temperatures are 

still primed for sea ice formation. Any new sea ice formation will 

likely melt as temperatures climb near or above freezing.



&&

Schreck