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FZAK80 PAFC 042341

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

341 PM AKDT Monday 4 September 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 9 September 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.



SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over the Chukchi Sea will move off to the 

east through Wednesday, then high pressure will build over the 

Chukchi and Beaufort Seas through Saturday.

 

-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 NM-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 NM-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 NM-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 76 5'N 157 39'W 

to 76 29'N 143W to 75'N 151 54'W to 73 30'N 144 20'W and continues E 

in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. A small area of 

brash ice remains along the coast near Prudhoe Bay.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 270 nm N of Point Barrow to 365 nm N of Prudhoe Bay 

to 280 nm NNW of Prudhoe Bay to 200 nm NNE of Prudhoe Bay and 

continues E in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. A small 

area of brash ice remains along the coast near Prudhoe Bay.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Westerly winds will become southerly Tuesday, 

then shift to northerly through Thursday and light and variable 

Friday and Saturday. Colder air will move southward over the ice 

pack this week, especially Thursday and Friday, and may allow for 

some new sea ice to form within the remaining ice pack. Otherwise, 

melting will generally slow through the forecast period. The ice 

edge will briefly drift north before drifting south up to 20 nm 

Thursday through Saturday. The very small area of remaining sea ice 

along the coast near Prudhoe Bay will likely completely melt by 

Saturday.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 NM-





The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 76 5'N 157 39'W to 

74 57'N 168 20'W to 72 10'N 159 16'W to 72 41'N 174 8'W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 270 nm N of Point Barrow to 285 nm NW of Point 

Barrow to 64 nm NW of Point Barrow to 345 nm W of Point Barrow and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will be variable through Tuesday, then 

become northerly to northwesterly Wednesday through Friday before 

becoming light and variable Saturday. Colder air will move south 

especially Wednesday and Thursday, and may allow for some new sea 

ice growth within the remaining ice pack. The southern part of the 

ice pack will drift south 20 to 30 nm through Saturday and melting 

will slow significantly through the forecast period. 



&&

Schreck