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FZAK80 PAFC 202149

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

148 PM AKDT Wednesday 20 September 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 25 September 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate.



SYNOPSIS...The low pressure off the north coast of Alaska will 

slowly move off to the northeast through Monday. High pressure will 

continue to build over the Chukchi Sea through the weekend.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 76 34'N 157 20'W 

to 76 52'N 142 14'W to 75 20'N 144 49'W to 76 27'N 148 26'W to 74N 

149W to 74 7'N 141 21'W and continues east in Canadian waters. The 

ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 310 nm north of Point Barrow to 390 nm north of 

Prudhoe Bay to 295 nm north-northeast of Prudhoe Bay to 350 nm north-

northwest of Prudhoe Bay to 220 nm north-northwest of Prudhoe Bay to 

250 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues east in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northerly winds over the remaining ice pack will 

bring colder air southward and the ice pack will drift southward up 

to 20 nm through Monday. New sea ice will likely form within the ice 

pack north of approximately 78N as the colder air moves south.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 76 34'N 157 20'W 

to 77 30'N 173 7'W to 74 37'N 178 54'W and continues in Russian 

waters. There is also an isolated area of sea ice near 73N 162W. The 

ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 310 nm north of Point Barrow to 425 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow to 415 nm west-northwest of Point Barrow and continues 

in Russian waters. There is also an isolated area of sea ice 

approximately 125 nm northwest of Point Barrow. The ice edge is open 

water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds over the remaining ice pack in the Chukchi 

Sea will generally be northerly through Monday. Expect new sea ice 

growth within the remaining ice pack through the forecast period and 

a general ice drift south up to 20 nm through Monday.

 

&& 

Schreck