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FZAK80 PAFC 222253

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

253 PM AKDT Friday 22 September 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 27 September 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.



SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure weakens over the Beaufort Sea through 

Sunday. High pressure then builds over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas 

Monday through Wednesday.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 76 31'N 157 32'W 

to 77 32'N 149 5'W to 73 39'N 152 27'W to 74 8'N 140 54'W to 73 18'N 

138 25'W and continues east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open 

water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 340 nm north of Point Barrow to 425 nm north-

northeast of Point Barrow to 230 nm north-northeast of Point Barrow 

to 290 nm north of Prudhoe Bay to 260 nm north of Demarcation Point 

and continues east in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light northerly winds will affect the remaining 

ice through Monday before becoming light and variable. Expect the 

marginal ice zone to continue to slowly melt through Wednesday, 

generally moving with tides and currents. New sea ice will likely 

form within the ice pack north of approximately 78N as the colder 

air remains overhead.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 76 31'N 157 32'W 

to 77 39'N 171 44'W to 74 52'N 180 and continues west in Russian 

waters. There is an isolated area of brash ice near 73N 164 24'W. 

The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 340 nm north of Point Barrow to 490 nm north-

northwest of Point Barrow to 500 nm northwest of Point Barrow. There 

is an isolated area of brash ice near 190 nm northwest of Point 

Barrow. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will remain light and variable through 

Monday. On Tuesday southerly winds will affect the ice edge, 

retreating it 10 to 20 nm through Wednesday. Expect new sea ice 

growth within the remaining ice pack through Wednesday.



&& 

Lawson