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FZAK80 PAFC 042313

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

313 PM AKDT Wednesday 4 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 9 October 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High.



SYNOPSIS...A low pressure in the high Arctic/North Pole will drift 

to the southeast Beaufort Sea through Saturday. High pressure will 

begin to build over the Chukchi Sea Tuesday and Wednesday, expanding 

into the Beaufort Sea through Monday. 





-BEAUFORT SEA-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 76 54'N 157 13'W 

to 77 9'N 148 25'W to 74 12'N 148 30'W to 73 38'N 137 59'W and 

continues southeast in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 320 nm north of Point Barrow to 360 nm north-

northeast of Point Barrow to 210 nm northeast of Point Barrow to 235 

nm north of Demarcation Point and continues southeast in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light westerly winds will remain through 

Thursday, expect ice to move to the east up to 5 nm. Friday through 

Saturday, light to moderate northerly winds will move over the ice 

area, moving ice to the south up to 10 nm.  The coldest air of the 

season so far will accompany the low pressure system so expect ice 

to continue to form along the ice edge and within the pack. The air 

mass is cold enough that it is possible to see new ice forming 

behind barrier islands along the North Slope coast. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 76 54'N 157 13'W 

to 75 16'N 174 23'W and continues west in Russian waters. The ice 

edge is open water. There is also an area of ice near 73 33'N 174 

48'W.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 320 nm north of Point Barrow to 275 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow and continues west in Russian waters. The ice edge is 

open water. There is also an area of ice 290 nm northwest of Icy 

Cape. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Westerly winds will turn northwesterly by 

Thursday, then become light and variable as high pressure build in. 

Expect the ice edge to move expand 25 to 40 nm to the southeast 

during this time period. The arctic air associated with the system 

will continue to grow new ice along the edge. 





&& 

Lawson