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FZAK80 PAFC 112333 RRA

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

333 PM AKDT Wednesday 11 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 16 October 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate.



SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain over the Beaufort and Chukchi 

Seas through Monday, and a series of weak lows will move north to 

the eastern Beaufort Sea. A strong low will move north into the 

southern Bering Sea Thursday through Saturday. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 75 32'N 157 36'W 

W to 76 40'N 154 10'W to 71 55'N 137 33'W and continues in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice mainly 

behind barrier islands along the north coast of Alaska.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 245 nm north of Point Barrow to 315 nm north of 

Point Barrow to 145 nm north-northeast of Demarcation Point and 

continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is 

also sea ice mainly behind barrier islands along the north coast of 

Alaska.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Cold air will remain over most of the 

Beaufort Sea through Saturday, then some warmer air will move over 

the eastern Beaufort Sea through Monday. Winds will be out of the 

northeast through the forecast period. The ice pack will move 

southwest 20 to 40 nm through Monday. New sea ice will continue to 

form along and near the ice edge, especially over the western 

Beaufort Sea.  



Along the north slope coast, sea ice will continue to form and will 

begin spreading north just a bit beyond barrier islands. Sea ice 

will struggle to gain a foothold beyond the barrier islands as 

warmer waters are just offshore.  



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 75 32'N 157 36'W 

to 74 55'N 167 9'W to 72 11'N 171 11'W to 72 39'N 177 51'W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 245 nm north of Point Barrow to 265 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow to 210 nm northwest of Icy Cape to 325 nm northwest of 

Icy Cape and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Winds will generally be out of the 

northeast, though there will be some periods of light and variable 

winds over the ice pack through Monday. Sea ice will continue to 

grow and thicken through the forecast period, and the ice edge will 

likely expand 30 to 50 nm through Monday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-



There is new sea ice within the protected bays of northern Norton 

Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Northerly to easterly winds will persist across 

northern Norton Sound. New sea ice will continue to grow within the 

protected bays of northern Norton Sound as well as Port Clarence 

through Monday. 



&& 

Schreck