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FZAK80 PAFC 132302 RRA

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

302 PM AKDT Friday 13 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 18 October 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High.



SYNOPSIS...A series of weak lows will move east across the Chukchi 

and Beaufort Seas through Wednesday.  



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 75 36'N 157 2'W 

to 76 45'N 154 8'W to 71 50'N 137 44'W and continues in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice mainly 

behind barrier islands along the north coast of Alaska.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 240 nm north of Point Barrow to 345 nm north of 

Cape Halkett to 125 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues in 

Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice 

mainly behind barrier islands along the north coast of Alaska.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Relatively warmer air will move westward over 

the Beaufort Sea through Monday, then the colder air will move back 

southeastward Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will generally be out of 

the north and northwest through the forecast period. The ice pack is 

expected to grow south 40 to 60 nm through Wednesday as new sea ice 

continues to form along and near the ice edge.  



Along the north slope coast, sea ice will continue to form and will 

begin spreading north just a bit beyond barrier islands. Sea ice 

will struggle to gain a foothold beyond the barrier islands as 

warmer waters are just offshore.  



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 75 36'N 157 2'W to 

74 46'N 167W to 73 7'N 166 56'W to 72 29'N 177 3'W and continues in 

Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice 

within protected bays and behind barrier islands along the coast 

from Wales to Point Barrow.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 240 nm north of Point Barrow to 265 nm northwest of 

Point Barrow to 210 nm northwest of Wainwright to 320 nm northwest 

of Wainwright and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water. There is also sea ice within protected bays and behind 

barrier islands along the coast from Wales to Point Barrow.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will be variable through the forecast 

period as weak lows move through the region, though any southerly 

winds will be fairly brief. Sea ice will continue to grow within and 

south of the main ice pack. The ice edge will likely expand 30 to 50 

nm south through Wednesday.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-



There is new sea ice within the protected bays of northern Norton 

Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist across 

northern Norton Sound. New sea ice will continue to grow within the 

protected bays of northern Norton Sound as well as Port Clarence 

through Wednesday. 



&& 

Schreck