####018004363#### FZAK80 PAFC 202056 RRA ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 100 PM AKDT Friday 20 October 2023 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 25 October 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds through the weekend and may remain through Wednesday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 74 54'N 155 2'W to 71 36'N 139 37'W and continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice along the north coast of Alaska. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 200 nm north of Point Barrow to 115 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice along the north coast of Alaska. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Moderate North/northwesterly winds may shift from the south on Monday. Winds from the north and colder temperatures on Sunday should encourage new ice growth. Southerly winds on Tuesday may melt most of the new ice formed along the ice edge. The ice edge will likely expand south 20 to 40 nm through Sunday and then little change is expected along the ice edge through Wednesday. Along the north slope coast, sea ice will continue to spread north just a bit beyond barrier islands. Sea ice will struggle to gain a foothold beyond the barrier islands as warmer waters are just offshore. Moderate westerly winds may shift from the south on Monday. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM- The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 74 54'N 155 2'W to 72 31'N 166 28'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new sea ice within protected bays and behind barrier islands along the coast from Wales to Point Barrow. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 200 nm north of Point Barrow to 190 nm west of Point Barrow and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new sea ice within protected bays and behind barrier islands along the coast from Wales to Point Barrow. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Moderate winds from the east/southeast are expected through the forecast period. Sea ice will continue to grow within the main ice pack, but strong winds from the south will likely retreat the ice edge to the west and north. Overall, the ice edge will likely retreat 30 to 50 nm south through Wednesday. Along the northwest coast, predominant southerly winds will hinder new sea ice growth and may melt some of the existing ice along the coast and in protected bays. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM- There is new sea ice within the protected bays of northern Norton Sound and along the Alaska coast from Emmonak to Cape Newenham. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Winds shift to southerly through the forecast period. Southerly winds would encourage new sea ice to melt. Some areas that had ice, could be ice-free by Tuesday. && Tinker