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FZAK80 PAFC 252137

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

200 PM AKDT Wednesday 25 October 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 30 October 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...On Thursday, a low moves north across the western Chukchi 

Sea, along the ice edge. On Friday, high pressure builds over the 

Beaufort and Chukchi Seas before low pressures strengthen along the 

ice edge again on Sunday. In the Bering Sea, a gale-force low builds 

on Friday.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 73 54'N 155 41'W 

to 74 4'N 146 10'W to 71 24'N 141 33'W and continues in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice 

up to 30 nm offshore along the north coast of Alaska.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort 

Sea extends from 150 nm north of Point Barrow to 210 nm north of 

Oliktok Point to 85 nm north of Kaktovik and continues in Canadian 

waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice 

up to 30 nm offshore along the north coast of Alaska.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Moderate southerly to westerly winds will 

persist, except for a lull in winds on Saturday. This lull could 

promote widespread growth along the ice edge. Otherwise, sea ice 

will continue to melt much of the new ice formed along the ice edge. 

The ice edge may expand 10 to 25 nm.



Along the north slope coast, sea ice will continue to spread north 

and melt, due to the persistent southerly winds. The greatest chance 

for sea ice growth will be Friday night into Saturday.





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-





The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 73 54'N 155 41'W 

to 71 21'N 174 8'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is 

open water. There is new sea ice within protected bays and along the 

coast from Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi 

Sea extends from 150 nm north of Point Barrow to 315 nm west of 

Point Barrow and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water. There is new sea ice within protected bays and along the 

coast from Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow.



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Moderate winds from the south and west are 

expected Thursday, then winds will be light and variable Friday and 

Saturday morning, before increasing from the north. Sea ice will 

continue to grow within the main ice pack. Expect northerly winds to 

expand the ice edge and encourage new sea ice growth. Overall, the 

ice edge will likely expand 25 to 50 nm through Monday.



Along the northwest coast, predominant southerly winds will hinder 

new sea ice growth and may melt some of the existing ice along the 

coast and in protected bays.





-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



There is new sea ice along the coast from near Goodnews Bay to near 

Stebbins as well as within the protected bays of northern Norton 

Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Southerly winds and warmer air temperatures will likely 

continue to cause most of the newly formed sea ice to melt. Stronger 

winds associated with the low pressure will compact any remaining 

new ice along south-facing coastlines while pushing out and melting 

new sea ice along north-facing coastlines.





&& 

Tinker