####018005188#### FZAK80 PAFC 272341 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 340 PM AKDT Friday 27 October 2023 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 1 November 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate SYNOPSIS...Two lows will move northeast across the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas through Sunday, then high pressure will build in across the region. Over the Bering Sea, a low will meander over the western Bering Sea through Wednesday. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- The main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 74 2'N 157 13'W to 73 50'N 151 19'W to 74 30'N 148 20'W to 71 19'N 141 22'W and continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice up to 30 nm offshore along the north coast of Alaska. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Beaufort Sea extends from 155 nm north of Point Barrow to 167 nm northeast of Point Barrow to 225 nm north of Oliktok Point to 95 nm north of Demarcation Point and continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new and young sea ice up to 30 nm offshore along the north coast of Alaska. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Moderate southerly to westerly winds will persist through Saturday, then northerly to westerly winds will bring colder air back to the Beaufort Sea Sunday through Wednesday. The return of colder air will allow ice to re-form within and near the ice pack. Overall, the ice edge is expected to advance 30 to 50 nm south through Wednesday, though there may be additional advancement in some areas where sea surface temperatures are primed. Along the north slope coast, sea ice will continue to spread north and melt through Saturday due to the persistent southerly winds. Sea ice will grow once again Sunday through Wednesday with colder air over the region, especially where winds become light and variable. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM- The main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 74 2'N 157 13'W to 74 12'N 160 50'W to 73 8'N 161 13'W to 69 35'N 178 20'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new sea ice within protected bays and along the coast from Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Chukchi Sea extends from 155 nm northwest of Point Barrow to 130 nm northwest of Point Barrow to 325 nm west of Icy Cape and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. There is new sea ice within protected bays and along the coast from near Point Lay to Point Barrow. FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Moderate winds from the south and west are expected through Saturday, then northerly winds and colder air will spread east across the Chukchi Sea Sunday through Wednesday. Expect northerly winds to expand the ice edge and encourage new sea ice growth. Overall, the ice edge will likely expand 25 to 50 nm through Monday. New sea ice formation is also likely over Hannah Shoal. Along the northwest coast, predominant southerly winds will hinder new sea ice growth and may melt some of the existing ice along the coast and in protected bays through Wednesday. Colder air is expected to move into this area late next week however, and new sea ice growth along much of the Chukchi Sea coast is expected. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM- There is new sea ice along the coast from near Quinhagak to near Kwikpak as well as within the protected bays of northern Norton Sound. FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Southerly winds and warmer air temperatures will likely continue to cause most of the newly formed sea ice to melt. Stronger winds associated with the low pressure will compact any remaining new ice along south-facing coastlines while pushing out and melting new sea ice along north-facing coastlines. && Schreck