####018004650#### FZUS81 KCLE 061959 ICEGL GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 256 PM EST Mon Nov 06 2023 ...Great Lakes Ice Season for 2023-2024 Expected to Be Average to Slightly Below-Average Ice Cover... An El Nino Advisory is in effect with El Nino conditions currently being observed, and it is anticipated to continue through the winter months of December through February. There is an 80% chance of it continuing through the northern hemisphere Spring in March and April of 2024. The expected impact of El Nino on temperatures for the upcoming ice season is for warmer than normal conditions along the US-Canadian border and into the Great Lakes, with the higher anomalies in the northern Great Lakes. This is the first El Nino after three consecutive ice seasons of La Nina conditions. Over the past 30 days, temperatures overall have trended slightly above normal for the entirety of the Great Lakes region. The last couple days of October into early November featured a shot of seasonally cold air as a result of a deep upper level low pressure system dropping in from the Canadian Prairies, through the upper Mississippi Valley, and into the southern Great Lakes. The Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern, the Arctic Oscillation teleconnection pattern, and the North American Oscillation (the North Atlantic) teleconnection pattern are all trending either neutral or have a wide spread of variability with a neutral average. These teleconnections typically respond to El Nino, and can affect the local surface and upper level patterns over the Great Lakes. As of this issuance, these features are not strongly leaning towards either their positive or negative phases. Over the next two weeks, the large scale weather patterns suggest quick moving systems across the Great Lakes along zonal flow aloft which is characteristic of this progressive pattern. A colder shot of air is expected for the end of this week with a series of upper level trough axes tracking through, but trends are for unseasonably warm conditions into next week. With the progressive pattern in place, ice formation on the front end of the season may be on the slower side. Water temperatures in Lake Superior are in the low to mid 40s, upper 40s to lower 50s in Lake Huron, upper 40s to mid 50s in Lake Michigan, and 50s in Lake Erie. Keep in mind that ice could develop earlier or later since ice development is highly dependent on the occurrence of cold air outbreaks and warm periods across the Great Lakes during the next two months. Ice formation is determined by two factors: The amount of heat stored in the water from the summer and how fast that heat can be removed by arctic outbreaks of Polar air and high winds. Long range outlooks do not consider the "storminess" factor which can significantly alter the thermal structure of the lakes over short periods of time. THE LATEST HARBOR WATER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS: 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 NORMAL DULUTH 49 51 44 40 40 42 44 48 53 44 SAULT STE MARIE 47 51 48 48 46 42 44 50 53 47 CHICAGO 53 55 52 47 44 46 44 52 55 53 ALPENA 51 54 49 47 42 42 46 50 53 48 DETROIT 49 51 47 52 44 43 42 50 53 52 CLEVELAND 53 55 53 53 51 48 50 55 58 56 BUFFALO 55 56 53 50 52 49 46 50 54 54 WATER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-LAKE BUOYS OR NEARBY SHIPS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS: LAKE SUPERIOR WEST 43 45 48 45 44 44 52 49 43 47 CENTRAL 44 44 MM 41 43 41 52 47 45 47 EAST 45 45 MM 42 46 41 52 52 45 48 LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH 52 48 56 50 51 49 56 59 51 54 SOUTH 54 51 59 47 50 51 58 61 54 56 LAKE HURON NORTH 46 51 57 49 49 45 51 56 53 53 SOUTH 53 54 56 46 49 49 59 57 54 55 LAKE ERIE WEST 54 54 60 MM 53 53 56 61 51 56 CENTRAL 55 57 60 55 56 53 63 62 58 58 EAST 55 56 60 53 54 53 62 59 56 57 THE NEXT FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN APPROXIMATELY TWO WEEKS. $$ Marsalek/Jaszka