####018003658####
FZAK80 PAFC 062344

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

244 PM AKST Monday 6 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 11 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high



SYNOPSIS...High pressure will persist over the High Arctic through 

Saturday. A series of lows will move across the central and southern 

Bering Sea through Saturday.



The main ice edge extends from near Point Hope to 70 47'N 160 41'W 

to 71 25'N 163 36'W to 72 31'N 166W to 69 33'N 178 23'W to 66 46'N 

171 23'W. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Point Hope to 15 nm W of Wainwright to 160 nm W of Point Barrow 

to 180 nm NW of Point Barrow to 250 nm NW of Point Hope to 100 nm NW 

of Wales. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. High pressure to the north and low pressure over 

land will create a strong gradient that will result in an increase 

in wind speeds. Northeasterly and easterly winds will vigorously 

push sea ice to the west, and the wind and wave action may cause 

some of the newest ice to melt. 



Along the north slope coast, the strong winds may slow the rate of 

new ice growth through the forecast period. Expect any new sea ice 

outside of protect bays to move to the west through the forecast 

period.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Strong easterly/northeasterly winds will 

continue to push sea ice west towards Russian waters 30 to 50 nm and 

new ice will likely form near the ice edge especially near Hannah 

Shoal. 



Along the northwest coast, strong winds may slow the rate of 

sea ice growth. Sea ice within protect bays, especially in Kotzebue 

Sound, may be pushed into open water. New sea ice growth is expected 

along west-facing coastlines, and there may be new sea ice near 

Kivalina especially if winds become light.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



There is new sea ice along the coast from near Quinhagak to near 

Kwikpak and within the protected bays of northern Norton Sound.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Predominant winds from the northeast will cool air 

temperatures enough for sea ice growth. Expect new sea ice growth 

along west-facing coastlines especially during times of northerly to 

easterly winds.



&& 

Schreck