####018003557####
FZAK80 PAFC 132355

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

2:50 PM AKST Friday 13 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 18 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to Moderate



SYNOPSIS...Low pressure currently in the Chukchi will move north 

into the high arctic while weakening through Saturday. A deep low 

will move from the southwest Bering into the Interior through Fri. 

An additional low will develop in the Gulf of Anadyr and move over 

the Alaska Peninsula. 



The main ice edge extends from near Point Hope to near Wainwright to 

69 28'N 179 55'E to 66N 169 48'W. The ice edge is open water. There 

is also new and young sea ice in Kotzebue Sound up to near Kivalina.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Point Hope to near Wainwright to 470 nm west of Point Barrow to 

45 nm northwest of Wales. The ice edge is open water. There is also 

new and young sea ice in Kotzebue Sound up to near Kivalina.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-



Ice covered.



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Light southerlies over the next two days may 

result in leads along the shorefast ice. Winds may relax on Thursday 

with colder air moving in nearby, which would encourage an increase 

in new sea ice growth. Expect the pack ice to continue to fill in 

through the week.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Strong northwesterly winds midweek will 

encourage movement of the pack to the south in addition to new ice 

growth. A brief period of southwesterlies may then retreat the ice 

some on Saturday. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to near Hooper Bay to 

63 22'N 165 35'W to 63 43'N 161 5'W to 64 28'N 163 37'W. The ice 

edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Quinhagak to near Hooper Bay to 40nm northwest of Emmonak to 15 

nm southwest of Unalakleet to 10 nm west of Golovin.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Expect air temperatures to decrease through the week, 

but for winds to increase through Thursday. This may slow new sea 

ice growth. As winds decrease Friday, expect the rate of new sea ice 

growth to increase.



&& 

Jones