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Saint Lawrence Freeze Up Date Outlook

National Weather Service Buffalo NY

330 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023



...FREEZE-UP DATE OUTLOOK FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...



The date of the first freeze-up on the Saint Lawrence River near 

Massena, NY is forecast to be January 5, 2024.



WATER TEMPERATURES...



Water temperatures started the month of November near average, but

have only slowly fallen through the middle of the month and are

now running several degrees above average.   



Water Temperatures November 15th:



Alexandria Bay, NY   51F (normal 49F) 



LAKE ONTARIO OUTFLOW...



The outflow from Lake Ontario has averaged about 265,000 CFS through 

the first half of November, which is above the long term average. 

Above average outflow from Lake Ontario is expected to continue 

through the rest of November.



Above average outflow from Lake Ontario results in faster current in 

the Saint Lawrence River, which can delay the onset of shore to 

shore ice.



AIR TEMPERATURES...



Temperatures through the first half of November have been slightly

below average in the Saint Lawrence Valley. Temperatures have been

more stable following an October with several significant swings

and periods of well above average temperatures. There have been

a nearly equal number of days above and below average through

the first half of November. 



October Average Air Temperatures through October 31st: 



Watertown, NY   39.3F (1.9F below normal) 

Massena, NY     36.5F (2.5F below normal)



FORECAST FOR THE REST OF NOVEMBER...



Air temperatures are forecast to be below average through the rest

of November. A temporary warm pattern through the rest of this

week will give way to below average temperatures again this 

weekend. Long range forecasts suggest a more notable trend towards

below average temperatures for the last week in November. A 

moderate to strong El Nino pattern will continue through the 

winter, which favors increased odds of above average temperatures 

in the eastern Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence Valley as we move 

into the winter months.



Given the above factors, and the overall trend in later onset of

ice cover over the past 15 years, the first freeze-up on the Saint 

Lawrence River near Massena, NY is forecast to be January 5, 2024. 

This date is almost two weeks later than the long term average. 



NOTE: Once the water temperature drops to the mid 30s, ice cover can 

develop in just one very cold, calm night.



NOTE: This forecast is for the first shore to shore freeze-up of the 

Saint Lawrence River near Massena, NY. The first permanent shore to 

shore ice often occurs several weeks later.



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HITCHCOCK