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FZAK80 PAFC 152028

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

1130 AM AKST Wednesday 15 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 20 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...A deep low will move southeast from the southwest Bering 

through Friday. Numerous low pressure systems develop along the ice 

edge on Saturday.



The main ice edge extends from near Point Hope to 71 59'N 165 14'E 

to 69 5'N 177 57'W to 66N 169 48'W. The ice edge is open water. 

There is also new and young sea ice in Kotzebue Sound up to near 

Kivalina.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Point Hope to 160 nm west of Point Barrow to 240 nm west of 

Point Hope to 45 nm northwest of Wales. The ice edge is open water. 

There is also new and young sea ice in Kotzebue Sound up to near 

Kivalina.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-



Ice covered.



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Northerlies and light winds with colder air 

moving in nearby, will encourage an increase in new sea ice growth. 

Winds may shift from the south Saturday, that would result in leads 

along the shorefast ice again. Expect the pack ice to continue to 

fill in through the week.





-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Strong northwesterly winds continue through 

Thursday. A brief period of southwesterlies will hinder ice growth 

on Friday, before winds become variable through the weekend. 

Overall, expect the sea ice edge to expand 25 to 50 nm through 

Monday.





-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to near Hooper Bay to 

63 22'N 165 35'W to 63 43'N 161 5'W to 64 28'N 163 37'W. The ice 

edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Quinhagak to near Hooper Bay to 40nm northwest of Emmonak to 15 

nm southwest of Unalakleet to 10 nm west of Golovin.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Expect air temperatures to decrease through the week. 

Strong northerly winds will shift to westerly on Friday. As winds 

decrease Friday, expect the rate of new sea ice growth to increase. 

There is low confidence that southerly winds will return on Sunday.





&& 

Tinker