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FZAK80 PAFC 172321

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

220 PM AKST Friday 17 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 22 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...A deep low will move along the Kamchatka Peninsula 

through Sunday, before weakening near the Gulf of Anadyr Tuesday. A 

weather front associated with this low will sweep north through the 

Bering, ushering in strong southerly winds.



The main ice edge extends from near Point Hope to 71 26'N 165 31'E 

to 70 9'N 179 53'W to 66N 169 48'W. The ice edge is open water. 





From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Point Hope to 160 nm west of Point Barrow to 240 nm west of 

Point Hope to 45 nm northwest of Wales. The ice edge is open water. 

There is also new and young sea ice in Kotzebue Sound up to near 

Kivalina.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-



Ice covered.



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape 

Halkett out to 15 nm-PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 

nm-PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Light northerlies will weaken and become 

southerly Sunday, increasing in speed through Tuesday. This may 

cause some leads in the shorefast again. Expect the main pack ice to 

remain intact.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to 

Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape 

Krusenstern out to 10 nm-PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson 

out to 15 NM-PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Strong northwesterly winds continue through 

Thursday. A brief period of southeasterlies will hinder ice growth 

on tonight, before winds become variable through the weekend. Monday 

and Tuesday, strong southerly winds will overtake the Chukchi Sea.

Overall, expect the sea ice edge to contract 25 to 50 nm through 

Wednesday.





-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-PKZ764-

Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point 

out to 15 NM-PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-PKZ803-

Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-PKZ804-Cape Stephens to 

Moses Point out to 15 NM-PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 

15 NM-PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to near Hooper Bay to 

63 22'N 165 35'W to 63 43'N 161 5'W to 64 28'N 163 37'W. The ice 

edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Quinhagak to near Hooper Bay to 40nm northwest of Emmonak to 15 

nm southwest of Unalakleet to 10 nm west of Golovin.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Air temperatures will continue to decrease through the 

weekend. Sea ice growth will come to an end as southerly winds and 

warm temperatures return Sunday, lasting through the early week.





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