####018004025####
FZAK80 PAFC 230022

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

322 PM AKST Wednesday 22 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 27 November 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...A large, sprawling low pressure slowly weakens over the 

southern Bering Sea through Saturday. High pressure moves from the 

Chukchi Sea to the Beaufort Sea on Friday. A front associated with 

a Kamchatka low pressure swings into the Bering Sea over the weekend.





The main ice edge extends from near Platinum to 60 30'N 165 32'W to 

62 21'N 166 36'W to 63 46'N 164 39'W to 64 4'N 161 42'W to near Nome 

then continues from Wales to Kivalina to Point Hope to 70 31'N 163 

16'W to 72 15'N 167 28'W to 69 33'N 176 50'W to 67 21'N 169 4'W to 

66 6'N 169 38'W. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Platinum to 10 nm southwest of Toksook Bay to 25 nm west of 

Scammon Bay to 35 nm northwest of Kwikpak to 25 nm northwest of 

Unalakleet to near Nome. Then continues from Wales to Kivalina, then 

from Point Hope to 30 nm west of Icy Cape to 125 nm northwest of Icy 

Cape to 270 nm northwest of Icy Cape to 75 nm southwest of Point 

Hope to 25 nm northwest of Diomede.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Winds will remain relatively light, though a 

weak low pressure will move from the Beaufort Sea onto the Canadian 

Archipelago through the weekend. Expect shorefast ice to continue to 

develop and become established through the week under relatively 

light winds and a seasonable air mass. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Generally light easterly winds will remain 

through Monday. Expect ice to continue to grow along the northwest 

coast of Alaska, as well as continuing to flow out of Kotzebue 

Sound. The ice edge to the west will compact and retreat 10 to 20 nm 

through Monday. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. A warmer air mass and moderate winds will prevent much 

ice growth through the weekend. A front passing will bring in a 

colder air mass, however, it will also bring onshore winds from 

warmer waters meaning ice compaction. The best chance for ice growth 

in this regime will be in eastern Norton Sound on Monday. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Sea ice is generally north and east of a line from the Susitna River 

Delta to Point Possession. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Air temperatures will 

warm and not be conducive for ice development through Monday. Much 

of the existing sea ice will likely melt.



&&

Lawson