####018003618#### FZAK80 PAFC 280027 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 125 PM AKST Monday 27 November 2023 FORECAST VALID...Saturday 2 December 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate SYNOPSIS...A large low pressure over the Bering Strait region weakens in place through Wednesday. A new front associated with a Kamchatka low moves into the southern Bering Sea late week. The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 61 23'N 167 21'W to 163 6'N 166 54'W to 63 54'N 163 20'W to Nome then continues from 66N 166 53'W to 65 50'N 168 26'W to near Kivalina then to 69 32'N 168 15'W to 70 55'N 164 18'W to 72 5'N 166 20'W to 70 55'N 174 44'W to 67 31'N 168 58'W to 66 8'N 169 42'W. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 35 nm west of Hooper Bay to 65 nm northwest of Kwikpak to 65 nm west of Unalakleet to Nome to 15 nm south of Port Clarence to 10 nm northwest of Wales to Kivalina to 50 nm northwest of Cape Lisburne to 80 nm west of Wainwright to 140 nm northwest of Wainwright to 250 nm west of Icy Cape to 65 nm southwest of Point Hope to 25 nm northwest of Diomede. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Winds will remain light out of the east, currents will mainly control ice drift. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Generally light easterly winds will remain through Thursday, increasing from the northeast Friday and Saturday. Expect ice to continue to grow and expand along the ice edge, 20 to 30 nm. Ice will likely encompass the west coast through Wales by Saturday. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Expect little growth from Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta. Expect more growth from the Yukon Delta through Norton Sound, the ice edge should advance to the west 20 to 30 nm. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- Sea ice is generally north and east of a line from the Susitna River Delta to Point Possession. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Air temperatures will warm and not be conducive for ice development through Saturday. Only river ice coming out of the Knik River will remain. && Lawson ####018003618#### FZAK80 PAFC 280028 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 328 PM AKST Monday 27 November 2023 FORECAST VALID...Saturday 2 December 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate SYNOPSIS...A large low pressure over the Bering Strait region weakens in place through Wednesday. A new front associated with a Kamchatka low moves into the southern Bering Sea late week. The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 61 23'N 167 21'W to 163 6'N 166 54'W to 63 54'N 163 20'W to Nome then continues from 66N 166 53'W to 65 50'N 168 26'W to near Kivalina then to 69 32'N 168 15'W to 70 55'N 164 18'W to 72 5'N 166 20'W to 70 55'N 174 44'W to 67 31'N 168 58'W to 66 8'N 169 42'W. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 35 nm west of Hooper Bay to 65 nm northwest of Kwikpak to 65 nm west of Unalakleet to Nome to 15 nm south of Port Clarence to 10 nm northwest of Wales to Kivalina to 50 nm northwest of Cape Lisburne to 80 nm west of Wainwright to 140 nm northwest of Wainwright to 250 nm west of Icy Cape to 65 nm southwest of Point Hope to 25 nm northwest of Diomede. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Winds will remain light out of the east, currents will mainly control ice drift. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Generally light easterly winds will remain through Thursday, increasing from the northeast Friday and Saturday. Expect ice to continue to grow and expand along the ice edge, 20 to 30 nm. Ice will likely encompass the west coast through Wales by Saturday. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Expect little growth from Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta. Expect more growth from the Yukon Delta through Norton Sound, the ice edge should advance to the west 20 to 30 nm. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- Sea ice is generally north and east of a line from the Susitna River Delta to Point Possession. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Air temperatures will warm and not be conducive for ice development through Saturday. Only river ice coming out of the Knik River will remain. && Lawson