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FZAK80 PAFC 300022

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

3 PM AKST Wednesday 29 November 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 4 December 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high



SYNOPSIS...A series of lows will move across the southern Chukchi 

Sea as well as across the Bering Sea through Monday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 59 42'N 164 9'W to 

62 8'N 166 33'W to 64 8'N 163 38'W to near Nome. The ice edge then 

continues in the Chukchi Sea from near Wales to near Kivalina, then 

from near Cape Lisburne to 69 45'N 167 34'W to 70 49'N 164 35'W to 

72 10'N 167 3'W to 70 15'N 176 6'W to 66 12'N 169 40'W. The ice edge 

is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Quinhagak to 14 nm south of Kipnuk to 32 nm northwest of 

Scammon Bay to 28 nm southwest of Golovin to near Nome. The ice edge 

then continues in the Chukchi Sea from near Wales to near Kivalina, 

then from near Cape Lisburne to 90 nm west of Point Lay to 90 nm 

west of Wainwright to 140 nm northwest of Wainwright to 315 nm west 

of Wainwright to 28 nm northwest of Diomede. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will remain light out of the east and 

south. Local tides and currents will mainly control ice drift 

through Monday. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 NM-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will generally be out of the north and 

east through Saturday, then shifting to southerly to southwesterly 

over Alaskan waters through Monday. Expect ice to continue to grow 

and expand westward up to 30 nm along the ice edge within Alaska 

waters through Saturday, then move north slightly Sunday and Monday. 

Colder air is expected to return over the Chukchi Sea Monday, likely 

beginning a period of more substantial ice growth.



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 NM-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 NM-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 NM-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 NM-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 NM-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. Existing sea ice will likely at least partially melt 

through Monday as relatively warm air remains over much of the 

Bering Sea. During periods of offshore winds, expect existing sea 

ice to move away from the coastline as it remains quite mobile.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



Sea ice is confined to low concentrations near the Susitna River 

Delta and within Knik Arm. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Air temperatures will fall back below freezing  warm and not 

be conducive for ice development through Saturday. Only river ice 

coming out of the Knik River will remain. 



&&

Schreck