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FZAK80 PAFC 042347

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

247 PM AKST Monday 4 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 9 December 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...A series of lows will move east across the northern 

Bering Sea through Wednesday. High pressure will then begin to build 

over the western Chukchi Sea Thursday through Saturday.



The main ice edge extends from near Platinum to 59 4'N 163 43'W to 

near Wales to 66 32'N 167 1'W to 66 50'N 165 23'W to 68 24'N 167 

59'W to 70 31'N 166 31'W to 70 39'N 172 29'W to 68 33'N 169 24'W to 

66 9'N 169 4'W to 64 57'N 172 24'W. The ice edge is open water. 

There is also sea ice within the Gulf of Anadyr.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Platinum to 70 nm west of Platinum to 45 nm west of Scammon Bay 

to near Wales to 28 nm northwest of Shishmaref to 40 nm southwest of 

Cape Krusenstern to 75 nm north-northwest of Cape Lisburne to 125 nm 

west of Wainwright to 240 nm west of Wainwright to 72 nm west of 

Cape Lisburne to 23 nm north-northwest of Diomede to 95 nm southwest 

of Diomede. 



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Expect light east/northeast winds and a 

seasonable air mass through Wednesday. Shorefast ice will continue 

to establish and thicken while the pack moves to the west, creating 

a shear zone between the two features.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Overall, easterly winds will persist through 

Tuesday. For Wednesday through Thursday, winds will generally be 

southerly except easterly north of Point Barrow. Northerly winds and 

much colder air will spread east across the Chukchi Sea Friday and 

Saturday, leading to significant sea ice growth. A small polynya 

should open between Utqiagvik and Cape Lisburne Wednesday and 

Thursday, but close again Friday and Saturday. 



Otherwise, within the open water area, sea ice growth up to 20 nm 

along the east side of the open water area and 40 to 60 nm along the 

north and west sides of the open water area can be expected. It is 

possible for sea ice growth along the north side of the open water 

area to expand 80 to 100 nm through Saturday. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. Northerly to westerly winds and a cooling air mass will 

foster new ice growth from Bristol Bay through the Bering Strait. 

Expect the ice edge to expand 20 to 30 nm through late Tuesday. A 

low moving toward the Bering Strait will bring a period of onshore 

winds Wednesday through Saturday which will push the edge back 10 to 

20 nm. However, there is plenty of arctic air behind the front which 

will keep the Bering Sea in a growth regime for the foreseeable 

future. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to near Point Possession. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Air temperatures will remain below freezing through Thursday, 

allowing for modest new sea ice growth in upper Cook Inlet. Colder 

air will overspread the Cook Inlet region late Thursday through 

Saturday. Expect more extensive sea ice growth during this time 

across northern Cook Inlet. 



&&

Schreck