####018004973#### FZAK80 PAFC 082359 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 300 PM AKST Friday 8 December 2023 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 13 December 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high SYNOPSIS...High pressure over the Chukchi Peninsula combines with weak and broad low pressure over the mainland for northerly flow through the Bering Strait and an arctic air mass over much of the area. The predominant storm track is from the north Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska. The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 61 20'N 166 31'W to 63 38'N 165 30'W to 65 52'N 168 46'W to 67 12'N 165 17'W to 70 18'N 166 58'W to 70 44'N 173 43'W to 67 28'N 167 52'W to 64 16'N 172 33'W. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice within the Gulf of Anadyr. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from Cape Newenham to 15 nm west of Hooper Bay to 50 nm south of Nome to 6 nm northeast of Diomede to 35 nm southwest of Kivalina to 85 nm north of Cape Lisburne to 170 nm northwest of Cape Lisburne to 55 nm southwest of Point Hope to 40 nm northwest of Gambell. The ice edge is open water. There is also sea ice in Bristol Bay. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. The air mass remains conducive to growing and thickening of existing ice. Light northerly winds will persist. Shorefast ice will continue to establish and thicken while the pack moves to the west, creating a shear zone between the two features. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly winds will persist through the period, with moderate to strong winds through the Bering Strait. The air mass overhead remains very conducive for growth, but winds will likely keep a widespread flash freeze from happening. Expect the ice edge to move southward 30 to 50 nm through Wednesday. There will likely be an area of open water left in the southern Chukchi Sea that will be susceptible to flash freezing once the winds calm down. -BERING SEA- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist through Wednesday. The strong winds will prevent widespread flash freezing, however, the ice edge should continue to expand out from the coast 20 to 30 nm through Wednesday. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- The main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to near Point Possession. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Colder air will overspread the Cook Inlet region through Sunday. Expect more extensive sea ice growth during this time across northern Cook Inlet. A warmer air mass and Turnagain Arm winds will come overhead on Monday through Wednesday which will melt some of the existing ice and also push it to the western Inlet. && Lawson