####018004939####
FZAK80 PAFC 140136

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

436 PM AKST Wednesday 13 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 18 December 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...A series of lows will move east across the southern 

Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska through Monday. High pressure 

will remain north of northeast Russia.



The main ice edge extends from near Pilot Point to 58 8'N 163 12'W 

to 62 26'N 166 6'W to 62 19'N 173 3'W to 64 29'N 175 11'W and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Pilot Point to 45 nm southwest of Cape Newenham to 90 nm west 

of Scammon Bay to 217 nm west of Scammon Bay to 100 nm west-

northwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Light winds will allow sea ice to move with 

local tides and currents through Monday. The air mass remains 

conducive to growing and thickening of existing ice. Shorefast ice 

will continue to establish and thicken.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northerly to northeasterly winds will persist 

through the period. Expect much of the remaining open water area to 

fill in with new sea ice through Monday, with the best chance for 

freezing most likely Thursday and Friday when winds are lightest. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist through 

Thursday and will likely allow for new sea ice growth especially 

from Nunivak Island and Saint Lawrence Island north and east. Late 

Thursday through Friday, winds will be easterly to southeasterly and 

warmer air will begin to move over the southern half of the Bering 

Sea. South of Nunivak Island, modest advancement of the ice edge up 

to 20 nm westward can be expected through Monday, and some of the 

established sea ice will likely melt as lows pass by and bring 

warmer air to the area.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to 61 3'N 150 44'W to 

near Nikiski. 



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

high. Seasonable air temperatures will continue through Monday, 

allowing for additional new sea ice growth across upper Cook Inlet 

through Monday. Expect the ice edge to advance up to 20 nm.



&&

Schreck