####018005427#### FZAK80 PAFC 152330 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 230 PM AKST Friday 15 December 2023 FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 20 December 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate SYNOPSIS...A series of lows will move east across the southern Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday. High pressure will remain north of Siberia. The main ice edge extends from near Pilot Point to 57 59'N 158 7'W to 58 8'N 163 12'W to 60 2'N 167 47'W to 62 22'N 169 39'W to 61 45’N 171 24’W to 62 25’N 173 16’W to 63 59’N 173 59’W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Pilot Point to 30 nm northwest of Pilot Point to 45 nm southwest of Cape Newenham to 15 nm southwest of Cape Mohican to 100 nm southeast of Gambell to 120 nm south of Gambell to 90 nm south- southwest of Gambell to 53 nm west of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Light winds will allow sea ice to move with local tides and currents through Wednesday. The air mass remains conducive to growing and thickening of existing ice. Shorefast ice will continue to establish and thicken. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly winds will persist through the period. Expect much of the remaining open water area to fill in with new sea ice through Wednesday, with the best chance for freezing most likely Tuesday and Wednesday when winds are lightest. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Moderate to strong northeast winds will persist across the Bering Sea into Sunday before shifting to the east and and southeast by Monday. A front moving across the Bering on Tuesday will split winds with easterly flow across the northern Bering Sea, and south to southwest winds across the southern Bering Sea. Ice development could be limited with some melting possible as warmer air moves into the southern Bering Sea by Tuesday, with northeasterly winds developing across the entirety of the Bering Sea for Wednesday. North of Nunivak Island, expect the ice edge to advance 50 to 70 nm southwest. From Nunivak Island south, the warmer air will inhibit ice growth and compact the ice edge against the Alaska coastline. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- The main ice edge extends from near Tyonek to 60 55N 151 4'W to near Nikiski. From land-based points, the ice edge extends from near Tyonek to 9 nm south of Tyonek to near Nikiski. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Seasonable air temperatures will continue through midweek allowing additional new sea ice growth across Cook Inlet through Wednesday. Tides and currents will be the main source of ice movement through Wednesday. && Schreck/Baker