####018005805#### FZAK80 PAFC 202315 ICEAFC Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program 215 PM AKST Wednesday 20 December 2023 FORECAST VALID...Monday 25 December 2023 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate SYNOPSIS...A large weakening low spreads from Bristol Bay through the Gulf of Alaska, with a new, stronger center forming in the Gulf. Thursday through Saturday, a new large low moves from west to east across the Aleutian Chain. Otherwise, arctic air and northerly winds will exist over the pack. The main ice edge extends from near Pilot Point to 60 30'N 169 40'W to 63 11'N 175 7'W and continues N in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from near Pilot Point to 65 nm west of Cape Mohican to 100 nm southwest of Gambell. The ice edge is open water. -BEAUFORT SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm- PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm- PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm- PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm- Ice covered. FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Light and variable winds will persist through Saturday. Northeasterly winds will increase on Sunday with some southerly winds on Monday as a low moves over the central Beaufort Sea. Expect ice to move with local tides and currents through Saturday, mainly with the Beaufort Gyre from east to west. The southerly winds could break off shorefast ice that is not strongly fastened between Cape Halkett and Demarcation Point. The air mass remains conducive to growing and thickening of existing ice. -CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore- PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm- PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm- PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm- PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm- PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm- PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm- PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm- PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm- Ice covered. PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore- PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm- PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm- PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm- FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. Northerly winds will persist through the period. Pack ice will continue to drift southward through the Bering Strait with a small polynya opening between Point Hope and Kotzebue shorefast ice. -BERING SEA- PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm- PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm- PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm- PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm- PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm- PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm- PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm- Ice covered. PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm- PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm- PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm- PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm- PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island- PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm- PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm- PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm- PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm- FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is high. For Bristol Bay, several low pressure systems will keep ice in flux over this area through Saturday. Sunday and Monday arctic air will resume a growth regime over the area. For the Kuskokwim Delta, stronger winds and warmer sea surface temperatures to the south will inhibit growth. Ice will still advance southward 20 to 30 nm through Monday. For the remainder of the ice edge across the Bering Sea. Steady moderate northerly winds and accompanying arctic air will bring a period of advance and growth. Expect the ice edge to advance 30 to 50 nm through Monday. It is possible that the marginal ice zone reaches Saint Matthew Island by early next week. -COOK INLET- PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- The main ice edge extends from near 60 48'N 151 46'W to 60 56'N 151 24'W to 60 46'N 151 16'W. The ice edge is open water. From land-based points, the ice edge extends from 5 nm northwest of the West Foreland to 16 nm north of the West Foreland to 4 nm northeast of Nikiski. The ice edge is open water. FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is moderate. Seasonable air temperatures will continue through Friday allowing additional new sea ice growth across Cook Inlet. Tides and currents will be the main source of ice movement through Friday. A strong front moves into the Gulf over the weekend, bringing a warmer air mass and possibly strong Turnagain Arm winds. Expect ice to advect southward with the stronger winds, bringing the ice edge south of the Forelands by early next week. && Lawson