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FZAK80 PAFC 230015

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

315 PM AKST Friday 22 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 27 December 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...A low will slowly move east along the Aleutian Islands 

through Monday. Otherwise, arctic air and northerly winds will 

persist over the ice pack. 



The main ice edge extends from near Pilot Point to near Egegik to 58 

12'N 163 22'W to 62 30'N 175 18'W and continues in Russian waters. 

The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Pilot Point to near Egegik to 47 nm southwest of Cape Newenham 

to 120 nm southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The 

ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Winds will be easterly through Sunday, then 

light and variable Monday through Wednesday. The main ice pack will 

drift westward through Sunday, then move with local currents Monday 

through Wednesday. The air mass remains conducive to growing and 

thickening of existing ice. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Northerly winds will generally persist through 

the period. Pack ice will continue to drift southward through the 

Bering Strait with a small polynya opening between Point Hope and 

the Kotzebue shorefast ice.  



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



For Bristol Bay, northwest winds will persist through Sunday 

allowing for continued sea ice growth. Winds will then become light 

and variable as a couple weak lows move through the region Monday to 

Wednesday. Existing sea ice will move with local tides and currents 

during that time. 



For the Kuskokwim Delta, stronger northwest winds will persist 

through Sunday. Warmer sea surface temperatures to the south will 

inhibit growth. Ice will still advance southward 20 to 30 nm through 

Wednesday. 



For the remainder of the ice edge across the Bering Sea, steady 

moderate northerly winds and accompanying arctic air will continue 

the period of advance and growth. Expect the ice edge to advance 30 

to 50 nm through Wednesday, though near and west of Saint Matthew 

Island the ice edge will likely advance 40 to 60 nm through 

Wednesday. It is possible that the marginal ice zone reaches Saint 

Matthew Island by early next week. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to near the 

East Foreland. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Air temperatures will warm to the middle to upper 20s 

Saturday and Sunday as a low moves through the region that will slow 

sea ice growth across Cook Inlet, then colder air will move in 

behind the low Monday through Wednesday allowing for more sea ice 

growth especially within the upper inlet. Expect ice to advect 

southward with the colder air early next week, potentially bringing 

the ice edge south of the Forelands by early next week. 



&&

Schreck