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FZAK80 PAFC 252233

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

132 PM AKST Monday 25 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 30 December 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High



SYNOPSIS...A complex low stretches over much of the state with weak 

centers in the Beaufort Sea, Bering Strait, and Bering Sea. Stronger 

low centers reside south of the Alaska Peninsula and in the Gulf of 

Alaska. By Wednesday, only a weak center in the northern Bering Sea 

is left and a new stronger system is developing toward the western 

Aleutians. The new system will move into the Bering Sea Friday and 

Saturday.  



The main ice edge extends from near Port Heiden to 59 42'N 170 7'W 

to 61 53'N 175 33'W and continues northwest in Russian waters. The 

ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Near Pilot Point to 70 nm east-southeast of Saint Matthew 

Island to 145 nm southwest of Gambell. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Several weak low pressure systems will be in the 

area with variable winds, but a stronger system over the Canadian 

Archipelago will bring a period of westerly winds Wednesday through 

Saturday. The main ice pack will drift westward with the Beaufort 

Gyre through Wednesday, then little movement beyond through 

Saturday. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Several weak systems will traverse the area, but 

ice movement will mainly be tides and currents through Wednesday. A 

stronger system in the Bering Sea will bring a period of easterly 

winds which will open a polynya long the northwest coast of Alaska, 

especially from Utqiagvik through Cape Lisburne. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



For Bristol Bay, northeast winds will persist through midday Tuesday 

allowing for a brief period of growth/advance. However, a period of 

easterly and southerly winds will retreat the edge around 10 nm on 

Wednesday. Later in the week, a developing Bering Sea system will 

bring widespread southeasterly winds which will push the ice edge 

back 20 to 30 nm. 



For the Kuskokwim Delta, a period of southwest winds will keep the 

ice edge in check and retreat it around 10 nm through Wednesday. 

Later in the week, expect longer duration southeasterly winds to 

retreat the ice edge 20 to 30 nm total through Saturday. 



For the remainder of the ice edge across the Bering Sea, stronger 

southeasterly winds developing Wednesday through Friday will retreat 

much of the gains of the past week. Expect the edge to retreat 20 to 

30 nm through Saturday. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to near the 

East Foreland. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Air temperatures and winds will remain conducive for more 

sea ice growth especially within the upper Inlet. Expect ice to 

advect southward with the colder air early next week, potentially 

bringing the ice edge south of the Forelands. 



&&

Lawson