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FZAK80 PAFC 272343

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

242 PM AKST Wednesday 27 December 2023



FORECAST VALID...Monday 1 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...A low will move into the southwest Bering Sea Thursday 

and persist into the weekend, then weaken Sunday into Monday. 

Another weaker low over the eastern Chukchi Sea will weaken late 

Thursday, then broad high pressure will build north of eastern 

Russia Friday through Monday.  



The main ice edge extends from near Port Heiden to 57 40'N 158 27'W 

to 58N 164 16’W to 60N 170 54’W to 60N 172 31’W to 60 29’N 173 32’W 

to 60 55’N 173 21’W to 62 13’N 178 15’W and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Port Heiden to 28 nm west of Pilot Point to 180 nm west of 

Pilot Point to 100 nm west southwest of Cape Mohican to 155 nm 

southwest of Cape Mohican to 175 nm west of Cape Mohican to 200 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Several weak low pressure systems will be in the 

area with variable winds, but a stronger system over the Canadian 

Archipelago will bring a period of westerly winds through Saturday. 

Little movement of the ice pack is expected overall through Monday. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. As the weak low moves north, winds will be 

southerly across the eastern Chukchi Sea, briefly creating a polynya 

off north-facing coastlines. Then as high pressure builds north of 

eastern Russia, winds will become light to moderate northerly and 

bring sea ice back to the south. A polynya will likely form again 

off the coast of Point Hope to Cape Krusenstern.  



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is high. The low in the southern Bering Sea will generally result in 

easterly winds over much of the ice pack in Alaska waters. The ice 

pack will advance westward 20 to 40 nm and polynyas will likely form 

off the west-facing coastlines of Alaska. These polynyas will 

quickly fill in with new ice. The greatest west to southwest advance 

will be near and west of Saint Matthew Island through Monday. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near the West Foreland to near the 

East Foreland. The ice edge is open water.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Air temperatures and winds will remain conducive for more 

sea ice growth especially within the upper Inlet, though sea ice 

growth will slow as temperatures moderate this weekend. Expect ice 

to advect southward and new sea ice to form with the colder air in 

place, potentially bringing the ice edge south of the Forelands by 

Monday.  



&&

Schreck