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FZAK80 PAFC 060027

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

325 PM AKST Friday 5 January 2023



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 10 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.



SYNOPSIS…A strong low located just south of the Aleutians will lift 

north across the Bering Sea Saturday through Monday, significantly 

weakening as it moves north.  An additional low will move into the 

north Pacific on Monday, crossing the Aleutians as it strengthens, 

moving to near Saint Lawrence Island by Wednesday.  High pressure 

continues to strongly influence the Arctic through Wednesday.



The main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 58 12'N 162 36'W to 62 

12'W 177W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Egegik to 30 nm south of Cape Newenham to 170 nm southwest of 

Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Easterly winds will persist through the period, 

strengthening Sunday into Monday. Expect the eastward movement to 

increase again Sunday and Monday on the order of 10-20 nm/day, 

decreasing by midweek.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Expect a large polynya to continue to develop 

from Utqiagvik through Cape Lisburne as east winds persist through 

Wednesday. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



West of Saint Matthew Island, a series of lows moving across the 

Bering Sea will be advancing the ice edge to the west 40 to 60 nm 

through Wednesday.  Winds will then shift to the south to southeast 

late Tuesday pulling warmer air into the area and compacting the ice 

slightly to the northwest.  





East of Saint Matthew Island, strong southeast winds will pull 

warmer air into the region, compacting the ice pack back towards the 

north and west as the low moves through the area. By Sunday, winds 

will decrease and briefly shift to the west through Tuesday before 

the next low tracks into the area.  By Wednesday, strong south winds 

can be expected to move the ice edge north 40 to 60 nm, with warming 

temperatures along with wind and wave action melting and compacting 

the ice edge. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from Tuxedni Bay to 60 29’N 151 31’W to 

60N 151 48’W.



From land-based points, the ice edge extends from Tuxedni Bay to 8 

nm northwest of Kalifonsky to 7 nm north of Anchor Point.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. Winds will be light north increasing on Sunday with 

warming temperatures into the 30s.  Light and variable winds will 

return on Monday with temperatures falling back into the teens and 

20s through Wednesday which will keep ice growth to a minimum and 

generally moving with the tides and currents.



&&

Baker