####018005698####
FZAK80 PAFC 082127

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

1237 PM AKST Monday 8 January 2023



FORECAST VALID...Saturday 13 January 2023



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to low.



SYNOPSIS...A broad and weakening low pressure center sits west of 

the Bering Strait while another strong low approaches the western 

Aleutians. The new system weakens as it moves into the southern 

Bering Sea on Wednesday morning. Two more disturbances join this 

circulation through Saturday, but move the low center toward 

Bristol Bay. 



The main ice edge extends from near Egegik to 60 5'N 173 18'W to 61 

26'N 176 35'W and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open 

water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Egegik to 5 nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 190 nm 

southwest of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge 

is open water.





-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Easterly winds will persist through the period, 

though the winds will lighten as high pressure builds during the 

middle of the week. Easterly winds increase again toward the 

weekend. Expect the pack to continue to drift westward at an average 

of 10-15 nm/day, increasing to 15-25 nm/day by the weekend. A large 

polynya will continue to open just off the shorefast ice from Barter 

Island through Prudhoe Bay but will re-freeze quickly with new ice. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is high. Expect a large polynya to continue to develop 

from Utqiagvik through Cape Lisburne as east winds persist through 

Saturday. The polynya will re-freeze with new ice quickly, just off 

the coast.  



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. 



A series of large, strong low pressure systems will keep the long 

duration easterly winds across the Bering Sea. 



For Bristol Bay through the Kuskokwim Delta: Continued moderate to 

strong easterly winds through the period. Expect the remaining ice 

from the Alaska Peninsula through Bristol Bay to completely melt by 

Saturday. Very little ice will be left from Nunivak Island eastward, 

only compacted ice against the coast near Kipnuk. Expect a large 

polynya to develop along the Yukon Delta coast as well as eastern 

Norton Sound. 



West of Saint Matthew Island, a series of lows moving across the 

Bering Sea will be advancing the ice edge to the south 20 to 30 nm 

through Saturday.  





-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from 60 3'N 152 34'W to 60 25'N 151 32'W 

to 59 52'N 151 48'W.



From land-based points, the ice edge extends from Tuxedni Bay to 8 

nm west of Cohoe to 5 nm north of Anchor Point.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. The air mass will continue to moderate with temperatures 

in the 20s. Generally light northerly winds will persist through the 

period. New ice growth is not expected due to the warmer air 

temperatures, but the northerly winds could move the ice edge 

southward 5 to 10 nm through Saturday. 







&&

Lawson