####018005857#### FZUS81 KCLE 082203 ICELIO Great Lakes Ice Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 503 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 Active watches...warnings...and advisories on the Great Lakes can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ 5 Day Ice Discussion... Ice cover on the Great Lakes remains at record low levels, with total ice coverage sitting at 1.42%. This is the lowest total ice coverage heading into the second week of January in at least 50 years. Only patchy thin ice of less than 2 inches thick can be found in parts of the southern Lake Superior shoreline, the Saint Mary's River, Big Bay De Noc, the southern tip of Green Bay, and edges of Saginaw Bay. Ice concentrations in these areas are 7-8 Tenths to 9- 10 Tenths. This is due to well above average air temperatures over the past 6 weeks and a lack of strong winds to mix down water temperatures. Current water temperatures on all five of the Great Lakes are the warmest since 1995. Surface water temperatures range from the low 40s F on Lake Superior and northern parts of Lakes Michigan and Huron to the low to mid 40s F on the rest of Lakes Michigan and Huron, as well as Lake Erie. Two deep low pressure systems will track through the Great Lakes through this weekend, with each bringing Gale force winds and progressively colder air. The first storm system will lift through the Great Lakes late Tuesday and Wednesday, and the second system will lift through Friday night and Saturday. True arctic air will finally filter through the Great Lakes behind the second system this weekend, with air temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s during the day and single digits to below zero at night by Sunday. This combined with the strong winds at the onset of the cold will remove some of the stored heat content and start to cool water temperatures at a quick rate. This will finally begin the ice growth process. Ice growth across all of the lakes will either be very slow or will decay through Thursday, but moderate ice growth will start on the northern Great Lakes by Friday and Saturday, expanding to moderate ice growth on all of the lakes by Sunday. Some rapid ice growth is even expected on the northern lakes Sunday. Looking farther ahead, shots of arctic air will continue to cross the Great Lakes in the 10 to 14 day time period with air temperatures averaging well below normal. This will likely continue to expand ice coverage, so big changes are on the horizon. The Great Lakes ice analysis products can be found at: http://usicecenter.gov/Products/GreatLakesHome and http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#currentconditions MAX WIND (KNOTS) AT EACH SITE FOR THE 12 HOUR FCST PERIOD Location Tonight Tue Tue Night Wed Wed Night West Superior 140/15 020/24 010/22 060/15 040/14 Mid Superior 140/20 030/26 020/28 010/17 030/15 East Superior 120/23 070/24 030/28 360/19 040/12 North Michigan 090/17 030/28 350/26 320/16 290/11 South Michigan 100/23 100/23 320/32 280/23 260/18 North Huron 110/27 090/31 330/24 310/28 300/14 Mid Huron 120/26 130/26 280/22 280/25 230/16 South Huron 120/29 140/29 270/26 270/28 220/18 West Erie 120/26 130/24 260/35 260/34 220/20 East Erie 150/23 150/35 230/28 250/34 220/22 Central Ontario 130/25 130/34 230/24 250/36 250/25 A full graphical forecast of wind on the Great Lakes can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ Temperature Forecasts for Selected Cities Location 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 Duluth 25 32 18 27 18 23 8 19 3 11 -2 7 Marquette 28 34 26 29 23 27 19 24 18 21 14 19 GreenBay 31 33 27 31 21 29 13 27 15 22 6 14 Milwaukee 34 36 30 32 22 30 20 31 21 25 9 16 Chicago 34 38 33 34 25 33 25 34 22 27 9 16 Muskegon 32 37 33 35 30 34 25 33 23 29 18 23 Alpena 29 37 28 32 23 32 21 31 18 26 13 23 Detroit 31 43 34 38 30 38 28 37 26 33 18 24 Toledo 33 44 35 38 30 37 28 38 26 32 15 21 Cleveland 34 47 36 39 32 40 30 43 31 39 19 26 Buffalo 31 44 38 41 33 38 29 38 34 37 21 27 A full graphical forecast of the Great Lakes forecast temperatures can be found at http://www.weather.gov/greatlakes/ FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON Mon Jan 8: LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT ---------------------------------------- DULUTH, MN JAN 7 692 227 MARQUETTE, MI JAN 7 545 178 SAU_S_MAR, MI JAN 7 364 76 GREENBAY, WI JAN 7 323 27 MILWAUKEE, WI JAN 7 131 0 CHICAGO, IL JAN 7 100 0 MUSKEGON, MI JAN 7 58 0 ALPENA, MI JAN 7 239 34 DETROIT, MI JAN 7 80 10 TOLEDO, OH JAN 7 43 8 CLEVELAND, OH JAN 7 17 1 BUFFALO, NY JAN 7 76 11 NORMAL TEMPS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FOR Mon Jan 8 LOCATION HIGH LOW ---------------------------------------------- DULUTH,MN 18 -1 MARQUETTE,MI 22 8 GREENBAY,WI 24 7 MILWAUKEE,WI 30 17 CHICAGO,IL 30 14 MUSKEGON,MI 28 13 ALPENA,MI 26 10 DETROIT,MI 31 17 TOLEDO,OH 31 16 CLEVELAND,OH 33 19 BUFFALO,NY 31 19 Garuckas $$