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FZAK80 PAFC 172347

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

247 PM AKST Wednesday 17 January 2024



FORECAST VALID...Monday 22 January 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate



SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build gradually west across the Bering 

Sea through Saturday. A north Pacific low will move to just south of 

the central Aleutians by Saturday, then slowly move east into the 

central Gulf by Monday. 



The main ice edge extends from near Cape Newenham to 59.45’N 

164.27’W to 59.56’N 167.72’W to 60.59’N 173.00’W to 61.98’N 178.08’W 

and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water. 



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Cape Newenham to 30 nm south of Kipnuk to 38 nm south of Cape 

Mohican to Saint Matthew Island to 200 nm southwest of Gambell and 

continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.



-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate to high.  West winds will become northwest by 

Friday and shift to the north by Saturday becoming light from the 

east by the end of the period.  The ice pack will generally move 

with tides and currents through the forecast period, with air 

temperatures conducive to continued sea ice growth. The polynya 

should quickly fill in with new and thickening ice.



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Winds will decrease in magnitude and become 

variable on Thursday before shifting to the north on Friday through 

Sunday, then shifting back to the south by Monday.  Sea ice movement 

will slow with the decreasing winds into the weekend.  South to 

southeast winds begin to move ice north again out of Kotzebue Sound 

next week and the polynya off the northwest coast will expand 

westward.  



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Across the northern Bering Sea, light winds on Thursday 

will shift to the north by Friday continuing through the beginning 

of next week.  A weak front is expected to cross the Bering Sea 

later on Sunday bringing variable winds to the central Bering with 

stronger north winds across the Kuskokwim Delta through the 

Aleutians through Monday.  The ice pack should recover quickly along 

the southern edge, with the ice edge advancing to the south up to 40 

to 50 nm through the period. 



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to near Kenai.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. High pressure will continue to influence the winds over 

south central Alaska through the weekend.  The high will keep 

temperatures in the single digits and teens with north winds 

increasing across southern Cook Inlet by Monday. Sea ice will 

continue to thicken and the ice edge will gradually move south 

around 10 nm through Monday.



&&

Baker