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FZAK80 PAFC 192320

ICEAFC



Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters

National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program

220 PM AKST Friday 19 January 2024



FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 24 January 2024



ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate



SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the Alaska Mainland through 

the forecast period with low pressure south of the Alaska Peninsula. 

A low will move from the Russian High Arctic Monday to the Alaskan 

high Arctic Wednesday. 





The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 59 7'N 164 6'W to 

59 18'N 166 47'W to 61 25'N 171 37'W to 60 33'N 172 35'W to 61 5'N 

174 16'W to 62 52'N 177 6'W to 61 46'E and continues in Russian 

waters. The ice edge is open water.



From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 

near Quinhagak to 40 nm S of Kipnuk to 30 nm S of Cape Mendenhall to 

70 nm NE of St. Matthew to St Matthew to 125 nm S of Gambell to 115 

nm SW of Gambell and continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is 

open water. 







-BEAUFORT SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-

PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-



Ice covered.



FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate to high.  West winds that are fairly light 

should allow any polynyas to freeze over. The low will bring 

southerly winds Monday, which may reopen the polynya but northerlies 

by Wednesday should move ice back to the coast. 



-CHUKCHI SEA-



PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-

PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-

PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-

PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-

PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-

PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-

PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-

PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast 

confidence is moderate. Winds will be variable throughout the 

forecast period, resulting in polynyas forming and closing through 

Wednesday. North and eventually east winds in Kotzebue will continue 

polynya development and growth. 



-BERING SEA-



PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-

PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-

PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-

PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-

PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-

PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-

PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-

PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-

PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-



Ice covered.



PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-

PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-

PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 16 nm-

PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-

PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-

PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-

PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence 

is moderate. Strong offshore winds (northeasterly) will persist 

through much of the forecast period with very cold air moving off 

the mainland. This will encourage ice movement of 40 to 60 nm south 

of the existing ice edge. Ice will form along the coast as the pack 

moves offshore.



-COOK INLET-



PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-



The main ice edge extends from near Tuxedni Bay to near Kenai.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is 

moderate. High pressure, cold temperatures and northerly winds will 

encourage ice growth towards Anchor Point.



&&

Jones