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Sea Ice Outlook for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters 

National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 

107 PM AKST Wednesday 24 January 2024



...JANUARY 2024 MONTHLY SEA ICE OUTLOOK...



The very end of December and first half of January was very active 

weather-wise across the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas as 

several lows moved north through the Bering Sea. The ice pack 

retreated, large polynyas formed, and some shorefast ice broke away. 

The weather pattern changed in mid-January that kept most storms 

south of the Aleutian Islands and brought cold air back south. The 

ice pack is recovering with the widespread cold airmass over much of 

Alaska waters.



Looking through the rest of freeze-up and for some areas into early 

break-up, El Nino conditions will persist through the winter but 

weaken toward ENSO-neutral during spring 2024. While the current 

cold snap is expected to persist through the end of January or so, 

February and March look to be warmer than average. The number of 

storms that move north through the Bering Sea may increase again, 

keeping the winter ice extent variable.



Detailed information can be found in each pertinent section below.



…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…



The ice edge is not expected to reach Saint Paul Island this season 

but if it happens it will be brief and late in the season. 



…FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…



Sea ice in Cook Inlet is very dependent on the prevailing ambient 

air temperature. El Nino winters tend to be warmer than average, so 

freeze-up dates will likely be later than the past three winters and 

sea ice extent will likely be variable through the winter as 

temperatures fluctuate. 



From 60N to the Forelands, seven tenths concentration is expected by 

the end of January, but may be relatively brief if February through 

April have above average temperatures as expected. 



Sea ice may briefly reach Anchor Point before the end of January.



…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET…



South of Kalgin Island is expected to be sea ice free during the 

last week of March.



South of the Forelands is expected to be sea ice free by the end of 

March.



From the Forelands to Fire Island, three tenths concentration is 

expected during the first week of April. Sea ice free conditions are 

expected during by the middle of April.



Turnagain Arm is expected to be sea ice free by the middle of April.



Knik Arm is expected to reach 3 tenths then be sea ice free by the 

third week of April.



Cook Inlet is expected to be sea ice free during the third week of 

April. 



…BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BERING SEA…



For Bristol Bay, while sea ice concentration will continue to be 

variable through the remainder of the season, the last time it is 

expected to decrease to three tenths concentration is the last week 

of March. Bristol Bay is expected to be sea ice free for the season 

around mid-April.



For Kuskokwim Bay, the shorefast ice is typically the last ice 

within the bay to melt. That ice is expected to no longer be 

shorefast by the end of April. Sea ice within Kuskokwim Bay is 

expected to reach three tenths concentration around mid-April and be 

sea ice free during the first week of May. 



For Etolin Strait, sea ice is expected to reach three tenths 

concentration by the end of April.



$$

Schreck